Recent polling shows Democratic nominee Xavier Becerra holding a roughly 22-point lead over Republican Steve Hilton among likely voters, consistent with California's partisan registration edge and strong Democratic performance in recent statewide contests. Affordability concerns rank as the dominant voter priority, with independents breaking toward Becerra while partisans remain highly consolidated. The narrow spread across adjacent margin buckets in trader pricing reflects uncertainty over final turnout differentials, late-cycle shifts on economic messaging, and regional variations outside coastal strongholds. A widening or narrowing of the polling gap before November 3, shifts in independent support, or unexpected mobilization in the Central Valley could move probabilities between the leading intervals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoBecerra 20-25% 22%
Becerra 15-20% 19%
Becerra 25-30% 18.1%
Becerra 40%+ 11%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Becerra 40%+
11%
Becerra 35-40%
5%
Becerra 30-35%
10%
Becerra 25-30%
18%
Becerra 20-25%
22%
Becerra 15-20%
19%
Becerra 10-15%
10%
Becerra 0-10%
2%
Hilton vence
<1%
Becerra 20-25% 22%
Becerra 15-20% 19%
Becerra 25-30% 18.1%
Becerra 40%+ 11%
NOVO
NOVO
3 nov 2026
Becerra 40%+
$705 Vol.
11%
Becerra 35-40%
$294 Vol.
5%
Becerra 30-35%
$185 Vol.
10%
Becerra 25-30%
$469 Vol.
18%
Becerra 20-25%
$682 Vol.
22%
Becerra 15-20%
$836 Vol.
19%
Becerra 10-15%
$248 Vol.
10%
Becerra 0-10%
$146 Vol.
2%
Hilton vence
$178 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows Democratic nominee Xavier Becerra holding a roughly 22-point lead over Republican Steve Hilton among likely voters, consistent with California's partisan registration edge and strong Democratic performance in recent statewide contests. Affordability concerns rank as the dominant voter priority, with independents breaking toward Becerra while partisans remain highly consolidated. The narrow spread across adjacent margin buckets in trader pricing reflects uncertainty over final turnout differentials, late-cycle shifts on economic messaging, and regional variations outside coastal strongholds. A widening or narrowing of the polling gap before November 3, shifts in independent support, or unexpected mobilization in the Central Valley could move probabilities between the leading intervals.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ET
Volume
$3,743Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows Democratic nominee Xavier Becerra holding a roughly 22-point lead over Republican Steve Hilton among likely voters, consistent with California's partisan registration edge and strong Democratic performance in recent statewide contests. Affordability concerns rank as the dominant voter priority, with independents breaking toward Becerra while partisans remain highly consolidated. The narrow spread across adjacent margin buckets in trader pricing reflects uncertainty over final turnout differentials, late-cycle shifts on economic messaging, and regional variations outside coastal strongholds. A widening or narrowing of the polling gap before November 3, shifts in independent support, or unexpected mobilization in the Central Valley could move probabilities between the leading intervals.
The 2026 California gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other."
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 California gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,743Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows Democratic nominee Xavier Becerra holding a roughly 22-point lead over Republican Steve Hilton among likely voters, consistent with California's partisan registration edge and strong Democratic performance in recent statewide contests. Affordability concerns rank as the dominant voter priority, with independents breaking toward Becerra while partisans remain highly consolidated. The narrow spread across adjacent margin buckets in trader pricing reflects uncertainty over final turnout differentials, late-cycle shifts on economic messaging, and regional variations outside coastal strongholds. A widening or narrowing of the polling gap before November 3, shifts in independent support, or unexpected mobilization in the Central Valley could move probabilities between the leading intervals.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
O candidato do Partido Republicano vencerá a eleição para governador de Nevada em 2026 por uma margem de 0%-3%?
26%
Sim
O candidato do Partido Republicano vencerá a eleição para governador do Texas de 2026 por uma margem de 3%-6%?
21%
Sim
O candidato do Partido Democrata vencerá a eleição para governador da Flórida em 2026 por uma margem de 3%-6%?
33%
Sim
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions