Elevated euro-area inflation, running at 2.9% in July 2026 and projected to average 3.0% for the full year, remains the dominant driver behind the 91% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026. Recent energy-price surges tied to geopolitical tensions have pushed core readings higher, prompting the Governing Council to hike the deposit facility rate to 2.25% in June and hold steady in July while revising inflation forecasts upward. Trader consensus, reinforced by real capital at risk, reflects expectations that policy will stay restrictive or tighten further amid sticky services and wage pressures, consistent with September futures pricing a high likelihood of additional hikes. A sharp de-escalation in energy markets or pronounced growth slowdown could still open the door to easing later in the year.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
9% chance
$31,480 Vol.
$31,480 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
9% chance
$31,480 Vol.
$31,480 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation, running at 2.9% in July 2026 and projected to average 3.0% for the full year, remains the dominant driver behind the 91% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026. Recent energy-price surges tied to geopolitical tensions have pushed core readings higher, prompting the Governing Council to hike the deposit facility rate to 2.25% in June and hold steady in July while revising inflation forecasts upward. Trader consensus, reinforced by real capital at risk, reflects expectations that policy will stay restrictive or tighten further amid sticky services and wage pressures, consistent with September futures pricing a high likelihood of additional hikes. A sharp de-escalation in energy markets or pronounced growth slowdown could still open the door to easing later in the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$31,480Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Elevated euro-area inflation, running at 2.9% in July 2026 and projected to average 3.0% for the full year, remains the dominant driver behind the 91% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026. Recent energy-price surges tied to geopolitical tensions have pushed core readings higher, prompting the Governing Council to hike the deposit facility rate to 2.25% in June and hold steady in July while revising inflation forecasts upward. Trader consensus, reinforced by real capital at risk, reflects expectations that policy will stay restrictive or tighten further amid sticky services and wage pressures, consistent with September futures pricing a high likelihood of additional hikes. A sharp de-escalation in energy markets or pronounced growth slowdown could still open the door to easing later in the year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,480Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elevated euro-area inflation, running at 2.9% in July 2026 and projected to average 3.0% for the full year, remains the dominant driver behind the 91% market-implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026. Recent energy-price surges tied to geopolitical tensions have pushed core readings higher, prompting the Governing Council to hike the deposit facility rate to 2.25% in June and hold steady in July while revising inflation forecasts upward. Trader consensus, reinforced by real capital at risk, reflects expectations that policy will stay restrictive or tighten further amid sticky services and wage pressures, consistent with September futures pricing a high likelihood of additional hikes. A sharp de-escalation in energy markets or pronounced growth slowdown could still open the door to easing later in the year.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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