Elon Musk’s recent posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 13 to 21 tweets per day across 2025 and early 2026, forms the core driver behind trader consensus favoring the 40-64 bracket for the May 18–20 window. This range aligns with his documented baseline of routine commentary on Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments without the surge that would push totals into higher brackets. Weekend timing typically dampens volume compared with weekday news cycles, while the absence of major product launches or regulatory announcements in the immediate forecast keeps momentum anchored near the lower end of active trading ranges. Precursor markets on similar three-day periods have consistently resolved in line with these steady-state patterns, reinforcing the implied probability as a reflection of observable behavior rather than speculation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado40-64 55%
65-89 25%
<40 17%
90-114 5%
NOVO
$43,396 Vol.
NOVO
$43,396 Vol.
20 mai 2026
<40
17%
40-64
55%
65-89
25%
90-114
5%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 55%
65-89 25%
<40 17%
90-114 5%
NOVO
$43,396 Vol.
NOVO
$43,396 Vol.
20 mai 2026
<40
$2,407 Vol.
17%
40-64
$3,784 Vol.
55%
65-89
$2,940 Vol.
25%
90-114
$5,560 Vol.
5%
115-139
$4,477 Vol.
1%
140-164
$2,691 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$4,517 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$4,356 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$6,486 Vol.
<1%
240+
$6,276 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 18 12:00 PM ET to May 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s recent posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 13 to 21 tweets per day across 2025 and early 2026, forms the core driver behind trader consensus favoring the 40-64 bracket for the May 18–20 window. This range aligns with his documented baseline of routine commentary on Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments without the surge that would push totals into higher brackets. Weekend timing typically dampens volume compared with weekday news cycles, while the absence of major product launches or regulatory announcements in the immediate forecast keeps momentum anchored near the lower end of active trading ranges. Precursor markets on similar three-day periods have consistently resolved in line with these steady-state patterns, reinforcing the implied probability as a reflection of observable behavior rather than speculation.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 18 12:00 PM ET to May 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: May 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ET
Volume
$43,396Data de Término
20 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 18 12:00 PM ET to May 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s recent posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 13 to 21 tweets per day across 2025 and early 2026, forms the core driver behind trader consensus favoring the 40-64 bracket for the May 18–20 window. This range aligns with his documented baseline of routine commentary on Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments without the surge that would push totals into higher brackets. Weekend timing typically dampens volume compared with weekday news cycles, while the absence of major product launches or regulatory announcements in the immediate forecast keeps momentum anchored near the lower end of active trading ranges. Precursor markets on similar three-day periods have consistently resolved in line with these steady-state patterns, reinforcing the implied probability as a reflection of observable behavior rather than speculation.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 18 12:00 PM ET to May 20, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$43,396Data de Término
20 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 16, 2026, 12:00 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskElon Musk’s recent posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 13 to 21 tweets per day across 2025 and early 2026, forms the core driver behind trader consensus favoring the 40-64 bracket for the May 18–20 window. This range aligns with his documented baseline of routine commentary on Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments without the surge that would push totals into higher brackets. Weekend timing typically dampens volume compared with weekday news cycles, while the absence of major product launches or regulatory announcements in the immediate forecast keeps momentum anchored near the lower end of active trading ranges. Precursor markets on similar three-day periods have consistently resolved in line with these steady-state patterns, reinforcing the implied probability as a reflection of observable behavior rather than speculation.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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