Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to Elon Musk posting fewer than 40 times on X from May 4-6, 2026, driven by real-time tracking data from xtracker.polymarket.com showing a verified total of just 34 posts as the period concluded early May 6 EST. This unusually low volume—averaging around 11 posts per day—stems from Musk's reduced social media engagement during his high-profile OpenAI lawsuit trial, where recent daily averages hovered near 16 amid court appearances. Historical patterns show Musk often exceeds 50 posts daily during active periods, but trial distractions have suppressed output. With the window closed and data synced, an upset would require a rare resolution dispute over post classification (e.g., replies or reposts), though traders see negligible risk given the overwhelming evidence.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado<40 100.0%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$1,700,997 Vol.
$1,700,997 Vol.
6 mai 2026
<40
Sim
40-64
Não
65-89
Não
90-114
Não
115-139
Não
140-164
Não
165-189
Não
190-214
Não
215-239
Não
240+
Não
<40 100.0%
40-64 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$1,700,997 Vol.
$1,700,997 Vol.
6 mai 2026
<40
$565,000 Vol.
Sim
40-64
$288,028 Vol.
Não
65-89
$375,994 Vol.
Não
90-114
$214,682 Vol.
Não
115-139
$104,206 Vol.
Não
140-164
$52,859 Vol.
Não
165-189
$26,195 Vol.
Não
190-214
$20,099 Vol.
Não
215-239
$23,840 Vol.
Não
240+
$30,094 Vol.
Não
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to Elon Musk posting fewer than 40 times on X from May 4-6, 2026, driven by real-time tracking data from xtracker.polymarket.com showing a verified total of just 34 posts as the period concluded early May 6 EST. This unusually low volume—averaging around 11 posts per day—stems from Musk's reduced social media engagement during his high-profile OpenAI lawsuit trial, where recent daily averages hovered near 16 amid court appearances. Historical patterns show Musk often exceeds 50 posts daily during active periods, but trial distractions have suppressed output. With the window closed and data synced, an upset would require a rare resolution dispute over post classification (e.g., replies or reposts), though traders see negligible risk given the overwhelming evidence.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado Aberto: May 2, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$1,700,997Data de Término
6 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 2, 2026, 12:01 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Sim
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Sim
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to Elon Musk posting fewer than 40 times on X from May 4-6, 2026, driven by real-time tracking data from xtracker.polymarket.com showing a verified total of just 34 posts as the period concluded early May 6 EST. This unusually low volume—averaging around 11 posts per day—stems from Musk's reduced social media engagement during his high-profile OpenAI lawsuit trial, where recent daily averages hovered near 16 amid court appearances. Historical patterns show Musk often exceeds 50 posts daily during active periods, but trial distractions have suppressed output. With the window closed and data synced, an upset would require a rare resolution dispute over post classification (e.g., replies or reposts), though traders see negligible risk given the overwhelming evidence.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 4 12:00 PM ET to May 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$1,700,997Data de Término
6 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
May 2, 2026, 12:01 PM ETFonte de resolução
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: Sim
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Sim
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns 100% implied probability to Elon Musk posting fewer than 40 times on X from May 4-6, 2026, driven by real-time tracking data from xtracker.polymarket.com showing a verified total of just 34 posts as the period concluded early May 6 EST. This unusually low volume—averaging around 11 posts per day—stems from Musk's reduced social media engagement during his high-profile OpenAI lawsuit trial, where recent daily averages hovered near 16 amid court appearances. Historical patterns show Musk often exceeds 50 posts daily during active periods, but trial distractions have suppressed output. With the window closed and data synced, an upset would require a rare resolution dispute over post classification (e.g., replies or reposts), though traders see negligible risk given the overwhelming evidence.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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