The September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%—following July's hold at 3.5-3.75%—has anchored trader consensus on the "Other" outcome at 99.7% for the July-October sequence. Persistent inflation above target, resilient economic activity, and geopolitical risks prompted the hawkish pivot, with updated projections now showing a median year-end 2026 rate near 4.1% and limited easing thereafter. This path deviates sharply from the low-probability pause or cut sequences, which together hold just 0.4%. An October hike or further tightening would reinforce the current pricing, while an unexpected cut would require a sharp deterioration in labor or inflation data to shift the aggregated market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoOther 99.7%
Cut–Pause–Pause <1%
Cut–Pause–Cut <1%
Cut–Cut–Pause <1%
$813,762 Vol.
$813,762 Vol.
28 out 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
No
Cut–Pause–Cut
No
Cut–Cut–Pause
No
Cut–Cut–Cut
No
Pause–Pause–Pause
No
Pause–Pause–Cut
No
Pause–Cut–Pause
No
Pause–Cut–Cut
No
Other
Yes
Other 99.7%
Cut–Pause–Pause <1%
Cut–Pause–Cut <1%
Cut–Cut–Pause <1%
$813,762 Vol.
$813,762 Vol.
28 out 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$17,184 Vol.
No
Cut–Pause–Cut
$9,609 Vol.
No
Cut–Cut–Pause
$9,145 Vol.
No
Cut–Cut–Cut
$7,550 Vol.
No
Pause–Pause–Pause
$267,681 Vol.
No
Pause–Pause–Cut
$70,882 Vol.
No
Pause–Cut–Pause
$44,813 Vol.
No
Pause–Cut–Cut
$29,550 Vol.
No
Other
$357,348 Vol.
Yes
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%—following July's hold at 3.5-3.75%—has anchored trader consensus on the "Other" outcome at 99.7% for the July-October sequence. Persistent inflation above target, resilient economic activity, and geopolitical risks prompted the hawkish pivot, with updated projections now showing a median year-end 2026 rate near 4.1% and limited easing thereafter. This path deviates sharply from the low-probability pause or cut sequences, which together hold just 0.4%. An October hike or further tightening would reinforce the current pricing, while an unexpected cut would require a sharp deterioration in labor or inflation data to shift the aggregated market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado Aberto: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Volume
$813,762Data de Término
28 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%—following July's hold at 3.5-3.75%—has anchored trader consensus on the "Other" outcome at 99.7% for the July-October sequence. Persistent inflation above target, resilient economic activity, and geopolitical risks prompted the hawkish pivot, with updated projections now showing a median year-end 2026 rate near 4.1% and limited easing thereafter. This path deviates sharply from the low-probability pause or cut sequences, which together hold just 0.4%. An October hike or further tightening would reinforce the current pricing, while an unexpected cut would require a sharp deterioration in labor or inflation data to shift the aggregated market-implied odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$813,762Data de Término
28 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado proposto: No
Sem contestação
Resultado final: No
The September 16 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%—following July's hold at 3.5-3.75%—has anchored trader consensus on the "Other" outcome at 99.7% for the July-October sequence. Persistent inflation above target, resilient economic activity, and geopolitical risks prompted the hawkish pivot, with updated projections now showing a median year-end 2026 rate near 4.1% and limited easing thereafter. This path deviates sharply from the low-probability pause or cut sequences, which together hold just 0.4%. An October hike or further tightening would reinforce the current pricing, while an unexpected cut would require a sharp deterioration in labor or inflation data to shift the aggregated market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions