The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s New York rape retrial has sharply lifted trader confidence in a “No Prison Time” outcome, now implied at 79.3 percent. After three days of deliberations, the jury deadlocked 9-3 in favor of acquittal, prompting the judge to declare a mistrial and giving prosecutors 30 days to decide on a potential fourth trial. Weinstein, already serving a 16-year California sentence from his 2022 conviction that remains under appeal, faces limited upside for additional consecutive time given his age, documented health issues, and the precedent of hung juries in prior proceedings. With no immediate sentencing dates on the horizon and ongoing appeals, the market reflects strong consensus that further incarceration beyond existing terms is unlikely to materialize.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTempo de prisão de Harvey Weinstein?
Tempo de prisão de Harvey Weinstein?
Sem tempo de prisão 79.3%
<5 anos 7.1%
5-10 anos 6.0%
10-20 anos 5.1%
$987,079 Vol.
$987,079 Vol.
31 dez 2025
Sem tempo de prisão
79%
<5 anos
7%
5-10 anos
6%
10-20 anos
5%
20-30 anos
4%
Mais de 30 anos
<1%
Sem tempo de prisão 79.3%
<5 anos 7.1%
5-10 anos 6.0%
10-20 anos 5.1%
$987,079 Vol.
$987,079 Vol.
31 dez 2025
Sem tempo de prisão
$346,861 Vol.
79%
<5 anos
$131,147 Vol.
7%
5-10 anos
$79,617 Vol.
6%
10-20 anos
$157,753 Vol.
5%
20-30 anos
$199,240 Vol.
4%
Mais de 30 anos
$72,460 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s New York rape retrial has sharply lifted trader confidence in a “No Prison Time” outcome, now implied at 79.3 percent. After three days of deliberations, the jury deadlocked 9-3 in favor of acquittal, prompting the judge to declare a mistrial and giving prosecutors 30 days to decide on a potential fourth trial. Weinstein, already serving a 16-year California sentence from his 2022 conviction that remains under appeal, faces limited upside for additional consecutive time given his age, documented health issues, and the precedent of hung juries in prior proceedings. With no immediate sentencing dates on the horizon and ongoing appeals, the market reflects strong consensus that further incarceration beyond existing terms is unlikely to materialize.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
Volume
$987,079Data de Término
31 dez 2025Mercado Aberto
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s New York rape retrial has sharply lifted trader confidence in a “No Prison Time” outcome, now implied at 79.3 percent. After three days of deliberations, the jury deadlocked 9-3 in favor of acquittal, prompting the judge to declare a mistrial and giving prosecutors 30 days to decide on a potential fourth trial. Weinstein, already serving a 16-year California sentence from his 2022 conviction that remains under appeal, faces limited upside for additional consecutive time given his age, documented health issues, and the precedent of hung juries in prior proceedings. With no immediate sentencing dates on the horizon and ongoing appeals, the market reflects strong consensus that further incarceration beyond existing terms is unlikely to materialize.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$987,079Data de Término
31 dez 2025Mercado Aberto
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The recent mistrial in Harvey Weinstein’s New York rape retrial has sharply lifted trader confidence in a “No Prison Time” outcome, now implied at 79.3 percent. After three days of deliberations, the jury deadlocked 9-3 in favor of acquittal, prompting the judge to declare a mistrial and giving prosecutors 30 days to decide on a potential fourth trial. Weinstein, already serving a 16-year California sentence from his 2022 conviction that remains under appeal, faces limited upside for additional consecutive time given his age, documented health issues, and the precedent of hung juries in prior proceedings. With no immediate sentencing dates on the horizon and ongoing appeals, the market reflects strong consensus that further incarceration beyond existing terms is unlikely to materialize.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions