Traders see 36°C and 37°C as the most likely daily maxima for Chengdu on August 10 because short-range model runs show only modest day-to-day variability amid the lingering sanfu heat pattern. The Sichuan Basin’s topography and high humidity favor strong afternoon heating when skies remain partly cloudy, yet scattered monsoon-driven thundershowers can cap temperatures near 35°C if convective activity arrives earlier than expected. Recent National Meteorological Center alerts for 35–38°C across eastern Sichuan reflect the baseline climatology of 30–35°C August highs, while model spread on timing of any rain explains the tight clustering around 36–37°C and the lower probabilities assigned to 38°C or cooler outcomes. Updated guidance from regional forecasts over the next 48 hours will be the key catalyst.