Democratic House incumbents face an unusually active primary cycle in 2026, with trader consensus heavily favoring 10-12 losses as multiple viable challenges from the left have already produced six defeats. Progressive candidates backed by figures such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani unseated Representatives Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in June New York contests, while democratic socialist Melat Kiros defeated long-serving Representative Diana DeGette in Colorado and state Representative Donavan McKinney ousted Representative Shri Thanedar in Michigan. Redistricting-driven matchups in Texas added two more Democratic losses. Remaining battleground primaries, including those in California runoffs, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Hawaii, and Florida, feature additional generational and ideological challengers against older or establishment incumbents, sustaining momentum for further upsets before the September filing deadlines close. This pattern exceeds recent non-redistricting cycles yet aligns with elevated filing volumes and voter emphasis on anti-establishment positioning ahead of the November midterms.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado10-12 78.6%
13-15 12.6%
7-9 3.6%
>15 1.7%
$35,341 Vol.
$35,341 Vol.
4-6
<1%
7-9
4%
10-12
79%
13-15
13%
>15
2%
10-12 78.6%
13-15 12.6%
7-9 3.6%
>15 1.7%
$35,341 Vol.
$35,341 Vol.
4-6
$2,834 Vol.
<1%
7-9
$13,902 Vol.
4%
10-12
$9,877 Vol.
79%
13-15
$3,371 Vol.
13%
>15
$3,152 Vol.
2%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic House incumbents face an unusually active primary cycle in 2026, with trader consensus heavily favoring 10-12 losses as multiple viable challenges from the left have already produced six defeats. Progressive candidates backed by figures such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani unseated Representatives Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in June New York contests, while democratic socialist Melat Kiros defeated long-serving Representative Diana DeGette in Colorado and state Representative Donavan McKinney ousted Representative Shri Thanedar in Michigan. Redistricting-driven matchups in Texas added two more Democratic losses. Remaining battleground primaries, including those in California runoffs, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Hawaii, and Florida, feature additional generational and ideological challengers against older or establishment incumbents, sustaining momentum for further upsets before the September filing deadlines close. This pattern exceeds recent non-redistricting cycles yet aligns with elevated filing volumes and voter emphasis on anti-establishment positioning ahead of the November midterms.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Volume
$35,341Mercado Aberto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic House incumbents face an unusually active primary cycle in 2026, with trader consensus heavily favoring 10-12 losses as multiple viable challenges from the left have already produced six defeats. Progressive candidates backed by figures such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani unseated Representatives Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in June New York contests, while democratic socialist Melat Kiros defeated long-serving Representative Diana DeGette in Colorado and state Representative Donavan McKinney ousted Representative Shri Thanedar in Michigan. Redistricting-driven matchups in Texas added two more Democratic losses. Remaining battleground primaries, including those in California runoffs, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Hawaii, and Florida, feature additional generational and ideological challengers against older or establishment incumbents, sustaining momentum for further upsets before the September filing deadlines close. This pattern exceeds recent non-redistricting cycles yet aligns with elevated filing volumes and voter emphasis on anti-establishment positioning ahead of the November midterms.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$35,341Mercado Aberto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic House incumbents face an unusually active primary cycle in 2026, with trader consensus heavily favoring 10-12 losses as multiple viable challenges from the left have already produced six defeats. Progressive candidates backed by figures such as New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani unseated Representatives Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in June New York contests, while democratic socialist Melat Kiros defeated long-serving Representative Diana DeGette in Colorado and state Representative Donavan McKinney ousted Representative Shri Thanedar in Michigan. Redistricting-driven matchups in Texas added two more Democratic losses. Remaining battleground primaries, including those in California runoffs, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Hawaii, and Florida, feature additional generational and ideological challengers against older or establishment incumbents, sustaining momentum for further upsets before the September filing deadlines close. This pattern exceeds recent non-redistricting cycles yet aligns with elevated filing volumes and voter emphasis on anti-establishment positioning ahead of the November midterms.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoRelacionado
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