Recent announcements by seven Republican senators have solidified trader expectations around that total for the 2026 cycle. Mitch McConnell, Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, and two others have confirmed they will not seek re-election, with one additional member pursuing a gubernatorial bid instead of another Senate term. These decisions follow patterns seen in prior midterms where incumbents weigh age, leadership transitions, and primary pressures. No major new retirements have emerged in recent weeks, keeping the count stable near historical averages for the class up for election. Traders price in limited further shifts before filing deadlines close later this year.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado7 65%
11 21.8%
8 14.6%
6 10.1%
$73,804 Vol.
$73,804 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<5
1%
5
4%
6
10%
7
65%
8
17%
9
4%
10
2%
11
22%
12 ou mais
1%
7 65%
11 21.8%
8 14.6%
6 10.1%
$73,804 Vol.
$73,804 Vol.
31 ago 2026
<5
$20,070 Vol.
1%
5
$15,535 Vol.
4%
6
$26,485 Vol.
10%
7
$2,145 Vol.
65%
8
$1,599 Vol.
17%
9
$1,328 Vol.
4%
10
$1,303 Vol.
2%
11
$923 Vol.
22%
12 ou mais
$4,416 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements by seven Republican senators have solidified trader expectations around that total for the 2026 cycle. Mitch McConnell, Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, and two others have confirmed they will not seek re-election, with one additional member pursuing a gubernatorial bid instead of another Senate term. These decisions follow patterns seen in prior midterms where incumbents weigh age, leadership transitions, and primary pressures. No major new retirements have emerged in recent weeks, keeping the count stable near historical averages for the class up for election. Traders price in limited further shifts before filing deadlines close later this year.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$73,804Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements by seven Republican senators have solidified trader expectations around that total for the 2026 cycle. Mitch McConnell, Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, and two others have confirmed they will not seek re-election, with one additional member pursuing a gubernatorial bid instead of another Senate term. These decisions follow patterns seen in prior midterms where incumbents weigh age, leadership transitions, and primary pressures. No major new retirements have emerged in recent weeks, keeping the count stable near historical averages for the class up for election. Traders price in limited further shifts before filing deadlines close later this year.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$73,804Data de Término
31 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent announcements by seven Republican senators have solidified trader expectations around that total for the 2026 cycle. Mitch McConnell, Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, Steve Daines, Cynthia Lummis, and two others have confirmed they will not seek re-election, with one additional member pursuing a gubernatorial bid instead of another Senate term. These decisions follow patterns seen in prior midterms where incumbents weigh age, leadership transitions, and primary pressures. No major new retirements have emerged in recent weeks, keeping the count stable near historical averages for the class up for election. Traders price in limited further shifts before filing deadlines close later this year.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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