**Trader consensus strongly favors the 100–129 tornado bin for July 2026 at 97.5% implied probability because official preliminary and confirmed counts from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center place activity near the long-term average of roughly 119.** July finished with approximately 109–111 confirmed tornadoes, reflecting typical mid-summer patterns of scattered supercells and limited tropical influence, with notably fewer Midwest events than in June and only one tropical system affecting the U.S. This aligns with climatological expectations for the month, where weaker shear and more stable air masses generally suppress widespread outbreaks. The high market-implied odds reflect traders’ confidence in these verified SPC tallies, which undergo rigorous National Weather Service review. Only substantial post-event reclassification or overlooked reports could realistically shift the final total outside 100–129, a low-probability outcome given current data convergence.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQuantos Tornados nos EUA em julho?
Quantos Tornados nos EUA em julho?
100–129 97.5%
190–219 1.9%
220–249 1.8%
310+ 1.1%
$3,945 Vol.
$3,945 Vol.
1 ago 2026
<100
1%
100–129
98%
130–159
29%
160–189
31%
190–219
2%
220–249
2%
250–279
1%
280–310
18%
310+
1%
100–129 97.5%
190–219 1.9%
220–249 1.8%
310+ 1.1%
$3,945 Vol.
$3,945 Vol.
1 ago 2026
<100
$810 Vol.
1%
100–129
$675 Vol.
98%
130–159
$290 Vol.
29%
160–189
$356 Vol.
31%
190–219
$320 Vol.
2%
220–249
$303 Vol.
2%
250–279
$426 Vol.
1%
280–310
$423 Vol.
18%
310+
$342 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus strongly favors the 100–129 tornado bin for July 2026 at 97.5% implied probability because official preliminary and confirmed counts from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center place activity near the long-term average of roughly 119.**
July finished with approximately 109–111 confirmed tornadoes, reflecting typical mid-summer patterns of scattered supercells and limited tropical influence, with notably fewer Midwest events than in June and only one tropical system affecting the U.S. This aligns with climatological expectations for the month, where weaker shear and more stable air masses generally suppress widespread outbreaks.
The high market-implied odds reflect traders’ confidence in these verified SPC tallies, which undergo rigorous National Weather Service review. Only substantial post-event reclassification or overlooked reports could realistically shift the final total outside 100–129, a low-probability outcome given current data convergence.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ET
Volume
$3,945Data de Término
1 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus strongly favors the 100–129 tornado bin for July 2026 at 97.5% implied probability because official preliminary and confirmed counts from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center place activity near the long-term average of roughly 119.**
July finished with approximately 109–111 confirmed tornadoes, reflecting typical mid-summer patterns of scattered supercells and limited tropical influence, with notably fewer Midwest events than in June and only one tropical system affecting the U.S. This aligns with climatological expectations for the month, where weaker shear and more stable air masses generally suppress widespread outbreaks.
The high market-implied odds reflect traders’ confidence in these verified SPC tallies, which undergo rigorous National Weather Service review. Only substantial post-event reclassification or overlooked reports could realistically shift the final total outside 100–129, a low-probability outcome given current data convergence.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$3,945Data de Término
1 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors the 100–129 tornado bin for July 2026 at 97.5% implied probability because official preliminary and confirmed counts from NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center place activity near the long-term average of roughly 119.** July finished with approximately 109–111 confirmed tornadoes, reflecting typical mid-summer patterns of scattered supercells and limited tropical influence, with notably fewer Midwest events than in June and only one tropical system affecting the U.S. This aligns with climatological expectations for the month, where weaker shear and more stable air masses generally suppress widespread outbreaks. The high market-implied odds reflect traders’ confidence in these verified SPC tallies, which undergo rigorous National Weather Service review. Only substantial post-event reclassification or overlooked reports could realistically shift the final total outside 100–129, a low-probability outcome given current data convergence.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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