The Department of Justice closed its January 2026 criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in April after a federal judge quashed related grand jury subpoenas, citing evidence of political motivation tied to interest-rate disputes rather than the $2.5 billion headquarters renovation testimony. The U.S. Attorney referred the matter to the Fed inspector general for review while preserving the option to reopen if warranted, underscoring tensions between administration pressure for lower rates and central bank independence. With no indictment filed and the investigation dormant for months, trader consensus on Polymarket reflects minimal implied probability of federal charges absent new developments such as an adverse IG report or shifts in political dynamics ahead of any leadership transition.