**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a stable high-pressure system over Cape Town, delivering clear skies and light southeast to south winds through September 20.** This setup favors moderate overnight radiative cooling, with expected minimum temperatures clustering around 14–16°C—well above the 10°C threshold and below 20°C. Model consensus shows consistent daytime maxima of 24–26°C under sunny conditions, with no incoming cold fronts, significant moisture, or wind shifts projected in the next 48 hours that would alter the nocturnal temperature profile. Historical September baselines for the region (average daily minima near 10–12°C) provide context, but the current mild air mass and lack of cloud cover support a slightly warmer night than typical. The closely matched market-implied odds between sub-10°C and 20°C+ outcomes likely reflect trader caution around exact measurement at the official station versus localized variations, or low liquidity amplifying small probability tails, rather than divergent scientific signals. New model runs or surface observations in the final 24 hours could refine the precise minimum but are unlikely to shift the central range substantially.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa na Cidade do Cabo em 20 de setembro?
10°C ou menos 99%
12°C 40%
13°C 40%
11°C 39%
10°C ou menos
99%
11°C
39%
12°C
40%
13°C
40%
14°C
21%
15°C
20%
16°C
20%
17°C
39%
18°C
8%
19°C
39%
20°C ou mais
1%
10°C ou menos 99%
12°C 40%
13°C 40%
11°C 39%
10°C ou menos
99%
11°C
39%
12°C
40%
13°C
40%
14°C
21%
15°C
20%
16°C
20%
17°C
39%
18°C
8%
19°C
39%
20°C ou mais
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 18, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Fonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Fonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate a stable high-pressure system over Cape Town, delivering clear skies and light southeast to south winds through September 20.** This setup favors moderate overnight radiative cooling, with expected minimum temperatures clustering around 14–16°C—well above the 10°C threshold and below 20°C. Model consensus shows consistent daytime maxima of 24–26°C under sunny conditions, with no incoming cold fronts, significant moisture, or wind shifts projected in the next 48 hours that would alter the nocturnal temperature profile. Historical September baselines for the region (average daily minima near 10–12°C) provide context, but the current mild air mass and lack of cloud cover support a slightly warmer night than typical. The closely matched market-implied odds between sub-10°C and 20°C+ outcomes likely reflect trader caution around exact measurement at the official station versus localized variations, or low liquidity amplifying small probability tails, rather than divergent scientific signals. New model runs or surface observations in the final 24 hours could refine the precise minimum but are unlikely to shift the central range substantially.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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