Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the GFS, ECMWF, and Russian Hydrometeorological Center point to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds of 2–5 m/s, supporting minimum temperatures near 8–11 °C on September 13. Model spread arises mainly from differences in predicted cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the exact low by 2–3 °C; clearer conditions favor deeper cooling toward the lower end of that range while increased low-level moisture or stronger winds limit it. This range aligns with the long-term average low of 8.4 °C and explains why markets price 7 °C and 12 °C-or-higher outcomes near parity, while the low probability assigned to sub-3 °C reflects the absence of any strong cold-air advection or blocking pattern in current guidance. Updated model runs and observational data from Vnukovo will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Moscovo a 13 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Moscovo a 13 de setembro?
2°C ou menos 61%
12°C ou mais 53%
4°C 40%
10°C 40%
NOVO
NOVO
13 set 2026
2°C ou menos
61%
3°C
15%
4°C
40%
5°C
25%
6°C
26%
7°C
30%
8°C
24%
9°C
24%
10°C
40%
11°C
15%
12°C ou mais
53%
2°C ou menos 61%
12°C ou mais 53%
4°C 40%
10°C 40%
NOVO
NOVO
13 set 2026
2°C ou menos
$0 Vol.
61%
3°C
$0 Vol.
15%
4°C
$0 Vol.
40%
5°C
$0 Vol.
25%
6°C
$0 Vol.
26%
7°C
$0 Vol.
30%
8°C
$0 Vol.
24%
9°C
$0 Vol.
24%
10°C
$0 Vol.
40%
11°C
$0 Vol.
15%
12°C ou mais
$0 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the GFS, ECMWF, and Russian Hydrometeorological Center point to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds of 2–5 m/s, supporting minimum temperatures near 8–11 °C on September 13. Model spread arises mainly from differences in predicted cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the exact low by 2–3 °C; clearer conditions favor deeper cooling toward the lower end of that range while increased low-level moisture or stronger winds limit it. This range aligns with the long-term average low of 8.4 °C and explains why markets price 7 °C and 12 °C-or-higher outcomes near parity, while the low probability assigned to sub-3 °C reflects the absence of any strong cold-air advection or blocking pattern in current guidance. Updated model runs and observational data from Vnukovo will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 11, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
13 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 11, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the GFS, ECMWF, and Russian Hydrometeorological Center point to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds of 2–5 m/s, supporting minimum temperatures near 8–11 °C on September 13. Model spread arises mainly from differences in predicted cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the exact low by 2–3 °C; clearer conditions favor deeper cooling toward the lower end of that range while increased low-level moisture or stronger winds limit it. This range aligns with the long-term average low of 8.4 °C and explains why markets price 7 °C and 12 °C-or-higher outcomes near parity, while the low probability assigned to sub-3 °C reflects the absence of any strong cold-air advection or blocking pattern in current guidance. Updated model runs and observational data from Vnukovo will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Data de Término
13 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 11, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest numerical weather prediction ensembles from the GFS, ECMWF, and Russian Hydrometeorological Center point to overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds of 2–5 m/s, supporting minimum temperatures near 8–11 °C on September 13. Model spread arises mainly from differences in predicted cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, which can shift the exact low by 2–3 °C; clearer conditions favor deeper cooling toward the lower end of that range while increased low-level moisture or stronger winds limit it. This range aligns with the long-term average low of 8.4 °C and explains why markets price 7 °C and 12 °C-or-higher outcomes near parity, while the low probability assigned to sub-3 °C reflects the absence of any strong cold-air advection or blocking pattern in current guidance. Updated model runs and observational data from Vnukovo will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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