Forecast models from sources including MetService and international runs indicate a mostly clear to partly cloudy night into September 13 in Wellington, with light southerly winds shifting and minimal precipitation risk supporting overnight radiative cooling. Consensus points to a minimum near 7–9 °C, consistent with September climatology, though slight variations in cloud cover, wind speed, or boundary-layer mixing could shift the actual low by 2–3 °C in either direction. This genuine short-term uncertainty—typical for single-day temperature markets—explains the balanced 39 % market-implied odds on both sub-4 °C and 14 °C-plus outcomes alongside clustered probabilities around 6–11 °C. Updated model guidance and local observations through the evening of September 12 will likely refine the range before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTemperatura mais baixa em Wellington em 13 de setembro?
Temperatura mais baixa em Wellington em 13 de setembro?
4°C ou menos 76%
14°C ou mais 76%
6°C 40%
11°C 40%
NOVO
NOVO
13 set 2026
4°C ou menos
76%
5°C
6%
6°C
40%
7°C
22%
8°C
27%
9°C
22%
10°C
22%
11°C
40%
12°C
18%
13°C
5%
14°C ou mais
76%
4°C ou menos 76%
14°C ou mais 76%
6°C 40%
11°C 40%
NOVO
NOVO
13 set 2026
4°C ou menos
$0 Vol.
76%
5°C
$8 Vol.
6%
6°C
$0 Vol.
40%
7°C
$0 Vol.
22%
8°C
$0 Vol.
27%
9°C
$0 Vol.
22%
10°C
$0 Vol.
22%
11°C
$0 Vol.
40%
12°C
$0 Vol.
18%
13°C
$0 Vol.
5%
14°C ou mais
$0 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including MetService and international runs indicate a mostly clear to partly cloudy night into September 13 in Wellington, with light southerly winds shifting and minimal precipitation risk supporting overnight radiative cooling. Consensus points to a minimum near 7–9 °C, consistent with September climatology, though slight variations in cloud cover, wind speed, or boundary-layer mixing could shift the actual low by 2–3 °C in either direction. This genuine short-term uncertainty—typical for single-day temperature markets—explains the balanced 39 % market-implied odds on both sub-4 °C and 14 °C-plus outcomes alongside clustered probabilities around 6–11 °C. Updated model guidance and local observations through the evening of September 12 will likely refine the range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 11, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$8Data de Término
13 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 11, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including MetService and international runs indicate a mostly clear to partly cloudy night into September 13 in Wellington, with light southerly winds shifting and minimal precipitation risk supporting overnight radiative cooling. Consensus points to a minimum near 7–9 °C, consistent with September climatology, though slight variations in cloud cover, wind speed, or boundary-layer mixing could shift the actual low by 2–3 °C in either direction. This genuine short-term uncertainty—typical for single-day temperature markets—explains the balanced 39 % market-implied odds on both sub-4 °C and 14 °C-plus outcomes alongside clustered probabilities around 6–11 °C. Updated model guidance and local observations through the evening of September 12 will likely refine the range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8Data de Término
13 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 11, 2026, 12:29 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including MetService and international runs indicate a mostly clear to partly cloudy night into September 13 in Wellington, with light southerly winds shifting and minimal precipitation risk supporting overnight radiative cooling. Consensus points to a minimum near 7–9 °C, consistent with September climatology, though slight variations in cloud cover, wind speed, or boundary-layer mixing could shift the actual low by 2–3 °C in either direction. This genuine short-term uncertainty—typical for single-day temperature markets—explains the balanced 39 % market-implied odds on both sub-4 °C and 14 °C-plus outcomes alongside clustered probabilities around 6–11 °C. Updated model guidance and local observations through the evening of September 12 will likely refine the range before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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