Maryland's 4th congressional district features an extreme Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters. Incumbent Glenn Ivey faces only minor primary opposition ahead of the June 23 vote, while the Republican nominee lacks any meaningful fundraising or organizational presence for the November general election. Traders have priced this structural advantage into the 93 percent implied probability for a Democratic victory, consistent with historical results in the district. A shift would require an unforeseen development such as the Democratic nominee withdrawing or facing a major scandal after the primary, events that remain unlikely given the district's voter composition and the absence of competitive dynamics on the Republican side.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMD-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
MD-04 Vencedor da eleição da casa
$24,585 Vol.
$24,585 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
93%
Partido Republicano
5%
$24,585 Vol.
$24,585 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$8,057 Vol.
93%
Partido Republicano
$16,528 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district features an extreme Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters. Incumbent Glenn Ivey faces only minor primary opposition ahead of the June 23 vote, while the Republican nominee lacks any meaningful fundraising or organizational presence for the November general election. Traders have priced this structural advantage into the 93 percent implied probability for a Democratic victory, consistent with historical results in the district. A shift would require an unforeseen development such as the Democratic nominee withdrawing or facing a major scandal after the primary, events that remain unlikely given the district's voter composition and the absence of competitive dynamics on the Republican side.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$24,585Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district features an extreme Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters. Incumbent Glenn Ivey faces only minor primary opposition ahead of the June 23 vote, while the Republican nominee lacks any meaningful fundraising or organizational presence for the November general election. Traders have priced this structural advantage into the 93 percent implied probability for a Democratic victory, consistent with historical results in the district. A shift would require an unforeseen development such as the Democratic nominee withdrawing or facing a major scandal after the primary, events that remain unlikely given the district's voter composition and the absence of competitive dynamics on the Republican side.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$24,585Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland's 4th congressional district features an extreme Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Safe Democratic ratings from forecasters. Incumbent Glenn Ivey faces only minor primary opposition ahead of the June 23 vote, while the Republican nominee lacks any meaningful fundraising or organizational presence for the November general election. Traders have priced this structural advantage into the 93 percent implied probability for a Democratic victory, consistent with historical results in the district. A shift would require an unforeseen development such as the Democratic nominee withdrawing or facing a major scandal after the primary, events that remain unlikely given the district's voter composition and the absence of competitive dynamics on the Republican side.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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