Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting mounting internal and external pressures on the company’s timeline. Recent reports highlight CFO Sarah Friar’s private cautions about organizational readiness and the risks tied to $600 billion in planned compute spending through 2030, alongside missed revenue targets noted in Wall Street Journal coverage last month. A PitchBook analysis from early May further shifted expectations toward a mid-to-late 2027 listing, citing heavy losses and the need for structural changes following the company’s $122 billion raise at an $852 billion valuation. Ongoing litigation with Elon Musk and competitive shifts toward enterprise AI add uncertainty, even as OpenAI advances its Microsoft partnership and retail-share allocation plans. These factors have reinforced trader skepticism about a 2026 debut despite earlier groundwork for a potential trillion-dollar offering.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoCapital de mercado de fechamento de IPO da OpenAI
Capital de mercado de fechamento de IPO da OpenAI
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2026 68%
1,5T+ 8.7%
1,25T–1,5T 3.7%
500–750B 3.5%
$1,638,863 Vol.
$1,638,863 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<500B
1%
500–750B
3%
750B–1T
2%
1T–1,25T
3%
1,25T–1,5T
4%
1,5T+
9%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2026
68%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2026 68%
1,5T+ 8.7%
1,25T–1,5T 3.7%
500–750B 3.5%
$1,638,863 Vol.
$1,638,863 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<500B
$266,170 Vol.
1%
500–750B
$146,331 Vol.
3%
750B–1T
$141,042 Vol.
2%
1T–1,25T
$182,625 Vol.
3%
1,25T–1,5T
$496,517 Vol.
4%
1,5T+
$101,032 Vol.
9%
Sem IPO até 31 de dezembro de 2026
$305,147 Vol.
68%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting mounting internal and external pressures on the company’s timeline. Recent reports highlight CFO Sarah Friar’s private cautions about organizational readiness and the risks tied to $600 billion in planned compute spending through 2030, alongside missed revenue targets noted in Wall Street Journal coverage last month. A PitchBook analysis from early May further shifted expectations toward a mid-to-late 2027 listing, citing heavy losses and the need for structural changes following the company’s $122 billion raise at an $852 billion valuation. Ongoing litigation with Elon Musk and competitive shifts toward enterprise AI add uncertainty, even as OpenAI advances its Microsoft partnership and retail-share allocation plans. These factors have reinforced trader skepticism about a 2026 debut despite earlier groundwork for a potential trillion-dollar offering.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Volume
$1,638,863Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting mounting internal and external pressures on the company’s timeline. Recent reports highlight CFO Sarah Friar’s private cautions about organizational readiness and the risks tied to $600 billion in planned compute spending through 2030, alongside missed revenue targets noted in Wall Street Journal coverage last month. A PitchBook analysis from early May further shifted expectations toward a mid-to-late 2027 listing, citing heavy losses and the need for structural changes following the company’s $122 billion raise at an $852 billion valuation. Ongoing litigation with Elon Musk and competitive shifts toward enterprise AI add uncertainty, even as OpenAI advances its Microsoft partnership and retail-share allocation plans. These factors have reinforced trader skepticism about a 2026 debut despite earlier groundwork for a potential trillion-dollar offering.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,638,863Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting mounting internal and external pressures on the company’s timeline. Recent reports highlight CFO Sarah Friar’s private cautions about organizational readiness and the risks tied to $600 billion in planned compute spending through 2030, alongside missed revenue targets noted in Wall Street Journal coverage last month. A PitchBook analysis from early May further shifted expectations toward a mid-to-late 2027 listing, citing heavy losses and the need for structural changes following the company’s $122 billion raise at an $852 billion valuation. Ongoing litigation with Elon Musk and competitive shifts toward enterprise AI add uncertainty, even as OpenAI advances its Microsoft partnership and retail-share allocation plans. These factors have reinforced trader skepticism about a 2026 debut despite earlier groundwork for a potential trillion-dollar offering.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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