**The 89.5% market-implied probability on “No” for another US government removal of public access to a major AI model in 2026 reflects the isolated, short-lived nature of the June 2026 Anthropic incident and the absence of comparable follow-on actions.** In mid-June, the Commerce Department issued an export-control directive requiring Anthropic to suspend access to its frontier models Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for foreign nationals (including non-citizen employees), citing a narrow jailbreak vulnerability that could enable cyber misuse. Because real-time nationality verification was impractical, Anthropic disabled the models globally for all users within hours. The controls were lifted within weeks—Mythos 5 partially restored to vetted partners by late June and Fable 5 returned more broadly by early July—after the company strengthened safeguards and agreed to enhanced government coordination on future releases. OpenAI faced parallel but milder pressure on its GPT-5.6 family, limiting initial rollout to a small set of administration-approved partners before broader availability. No equivalent full public-access removal has occurred since, despite ongoing executive-order frameworks for voluntary pre-release vetting of frontier large language models. Recent developments, including September reports on unrelated policy inconsistencies around Chinese models, show no escalation or new interventions against major US-developed systems. Traders view the Anthropic episode as a one-time response to acute cybersecurity concerns rather than the start of routine restrictions. With no reported incidents or credible signals of impending action in the final months of 2026, the market consensus treats repetition as unlikely absent a major new capability demonstration or security incident.