Current NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks show no active tropical cyclones or organized disturbances in the Eastern or Central Pacific as of August 8, with formation not expected over the next seven days. This quiet pattern, following the dissipation of recent systems like Genevieve, underpins the 56% market-implied probability for no new tropical cyclone by August 14. El Niño conditions support an above-normal seasonal outlook overall—15–22 named storms in the east and 5–13 in the central basin—but short-term steering patterns, wind shear, and lack of seed waves limit near-term genesis potential. Official 7-day guidance and model consensus reinforce trader caution ahead of the typical mid-August ramp-up.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoUm ciclone tropical se formará nas bacias do Pacífico ou do Pacífico Central até 14 de agosto?
Um ciclone tropical se formará nas bacias do Pacífico ou do Pacífico Central até 14 de agosto?
41% chance
NOVO
NOVO
15 ago 2026
41% chance
NOVO
NOVO
15 ago 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.Current NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks show no active tropical cyclones or organized disturbances in the Eastern or Central Pacific as of August 8, with formation not expected over the next seven days. This quiet pattern, following the dissipation of recent systems like Genevieve, underpins the 56% market-implied probability for no new tropical cyclone by August 14. El Niño conditions support an above-normal seasonal outlook overall—15–22 named storms in the east and 5–13 in the central basin—but short-term steering patterns, wind shear, and lack of seed waves limit near-term genesis potential. Official 7-day guidance and model consensus reinforce trader caution ahead of the typical mid-August ramp-up.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Volume
$520Data de Término
15 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.Current NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks show no active tropical cyclones or organized disturbances in the Eastern or Central Pacific as of August 8, with formation not expected over the next seven days. This quiet pattern, following the dissipation of recent systems like Genevieve, underpins the 56% market-implied probability for no new tropical cyclone by August 14. El Niño conditions support an above-normal seasonal outlook overall—15–22 named storms in the east and 5–13 in the central basin—but short-term steering patterns, wind shear, and lack of seed waves limit near-term genesis potential. Official 7-day guidance and model consensus reinforce trader caution ahead of the typical mid-August ramp-up.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$520Data de Término
15 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Current NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks show no active tropical cyclones or organized disturbances in the Eastern or Central Pacific as of August 8, with formation not expected over the next seven days. This quiet pattern, following the dissipation of recent systems like Genevieve, underpins the 56% market-implied probability for no new tropical cyclone by August 14. El Niño conditions support an above-normal seasonal outlook overall—15–22 named storms in the east and 5–13 in the central basin—but short-term steering patterns, wind shear, and lack of seed waves limit near-term genesis potential. Official 7-day guidance and model consensus reinforce trader caution ahead of the typical mid-August ramp-up.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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