NHC forecasters are tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C in the Central Pacific, roughly 895 miles east-southeast of Hawaii, with an official 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within 48 hours. This near-term threat, supported by persistent showers, thunderstorms, and favorable environmental conditions, drives the 97.5 percent market-implied probability for formation by August 14. Tropical Storm Hernan in the Eastern Pacific adds to the active basin pattern. While model consensus strongly favors development, minor uncertainty remains around exact timing or intensity thresholds that could technically delay classification just past the resolution window. Updated NHC advisories and satellite observations over the next 24 hours will provide the decisive data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoUm ciclone tropical se formará nas bacias do Pacífico ou do Pacífico Central até 14 de agosto?
Um ciclone tropical se formará nas bacias do Pacífico ou do Pacífico Central até 14 de agosto?
98% chance
$1,009 Vol.
$1,009 Vol.
15 ago 2026
98% chance
$1,009 Vol.
$1,009 Vol.
15 ago 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.NHC forecasters are tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C in the Central Pacific, roughly 895 miles east-southeast of Hawaii, with an official 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within 48 hours. This near-term threat, supported by persistent showers, thunderstorms, and favorable environmental conditions, drives the 97.5 percent market-implied probability for formation by August 14. Tropical Storm Hernan in the Eastern Pacific adds to the active basin pattern. While model consensus strongly favors development, minor uncertainty remains around exact timing or intensity thresholds that could technically delay classification just past the resolution window. Updated NHC advisories and satellite observations over the next 24 hours will provide the decisive data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Volume
$1,009Data de Término
15 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Yes
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.NHC forecasters are tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C in the Central Pacific, roughly 895 miles east-southeast of Hawaii, with an official 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within 48 hours. This near-term threat, supported by persistent showers, thunderstorms, and favorable environmental conditions, drives the 97.5 percent market-implied probability for formation by August 14. Tropical Storm Hernan in the Eastern Pacific adds to the active basin pattern. While model consensus strongly favors development, minor uncertainty remains around exact timing or intensity thresholds that could technically delay classification just past the resolution window. Updated NHC advisories and satellite observations over the next 24 hours will provide the decisive data.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) designates a tropical cyclone, a tropical depression, tropical storm, or hurricane, in the Pacific basin or the Central Pacific basin at any time between market creation and August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
For the purposes of this market, the "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" basins are the areas covered by the NHC's "Pacific" and "Central Pacific" Tropical Weather Outlooks at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/. As of the launch of this market, the NHC reports no active tropical cyclones in either basin.
The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/), including its tropical cyclone advisories, public advisories, and Tropical Weather Outlooks for the Pacific and Central Pacific basins.
If there is a potential tropical cyclone that has not yet been classified by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until August 15, 12:00 PM ET to determine whether a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$1,009Data de Término
15 ago 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 7, 2026, 10:59 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resultado proposto: Yes
Sem contestação
Resultado final: Yes
NHC forecasters are tracking Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C in the Central Pacific, roughly 895 miles east-southeast of Hawaii, with an official 90 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm within 48 hours. This near-term threat, supported by persistent showers, thunderstorms, and favorable environmental conditions, drives the 97.5 percent market-implied probability for formation by August 14. Tropical Storm Hernan in the Eastern Pacific adds to the active basin pattern. While model consensus strongly favors development, minor uncertainty remains around exact timing or intensity thresholds that could technically delay classification just past the resolution window. Updated NHC advisories and satellite observations over the next 24 hours will provide the decisive data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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