The absence of any presidential vacancy under Iran's constitutional framework sustains near-certain trader consensus against an election by June 30, as President Masoud Pezeshkian remains in office following the 2024 contest. Iran's rules require a vote within 50 days only after death, resignation, or confirmed incapacity, with the Guardian Council naming an interim leader, yet no such trigger has materialized despite earlier unverified reports of internal strains. The standard four-year cycle after 2024 places the next scheduled contest in 2028, and Pezeshkian's ongoing schedule, including engagements with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, shows no disruption. A sudden leadership change before the resolution date stands as the sole realistic development capable of shifting the current implied probability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoIrão realizar eleições presidenciais até 30 de junho?
Irão realizar eleições presidenciais até 30 de junho?
Sim
$698,593 Vol.
$698,593 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sim
$698,593 Vol.
$698,593 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The absence of any presidential vacancy under Iran's constitutional framework sustains near-certain trader consensus against an election by June 30, as President Masoud Pezeshkian remains in office following the 2024 contest. Iran's rules require a vote within 50 days only after death, resignation, or confirmed incapacity, with the Guardian Council naming an interim leader, yet no such trigger has materialized despite earlier unverified reports of internal strains. The standard four-year cycle after 2024 places the next scheduled contest in 2028, and Pezeshkian's ongoing schedule, including engagements with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, shows no disruption. A sudden leadership change before the resolution date stands as the sole realistic development capable of shifting the current implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Volume
$698,593Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The absence of any presidential vacancy under Iran's constitutional framework sustains near-certain trader consensus against an election by June 30, as President Masoud Pezeshkian remains in office following the 2024 contest. Iran's rules require a vote within 50 days only after death, resignation, or confirmed incapacity, with the Guardian Council naming an interim leader, yet no such trigger has materialized despite earlier unverified reports of internal strains. The standard four-year cycle after 2024 places the next scheduled contest in 2028, and Pezeshkian's ongoing schedule, including engagements with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, shows no disruption. A sudden leadership change before the resolution date stands as the sole realistic development capable of shifting the current implied probability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an Iranian presidential election is officially held by June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately upon the official confirmation that voting in the presidential election has taken place.
Any announcement of an election date will not be sufficient for a positive resolution.
Allegations, criticisms, or disputes regarding the fairness, legitimacy, or conduct of the election, as well as any protests, annulments, investigations, or other subsequent events occurring after voting has taken place, will not be considered in determining this market’s resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$698,593Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 1, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The absence of any presidential vacancy under Iran's constitutional framework sustains near-certain trader consensus against an election by June 30, as President Masoud Pezeshkian remains in office following the 2024 contest. Iran's rules require a vote within 50 days only after death, resignation, or confirmed incapacity, with the Guardian Council naming an interim leader, yet no such trigger has materialized despite earlier unverified reports of internal strains. The standard four-year cycle after 2024 places the next scheduled contest in 2028, and Pezeshkian's ongoing schedule, including engagements with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, shows no disruption. A sudden leadership change before the resolution date stands as the sole realistic development capable of shifting the current implied probability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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