SpaceX's advanced initial public offering preparations, including a confidential SEC filing in early April and plans to release its prospectus next week ahead of a June roadshow targeting a $1.75–2 trillion valuation, have driven trader consensus to a 98.2% implied probability that it will IPO before OpenAI. This reflects SpaceX's integration of Starlink revenue growth—projected at $15–24 billion in 2026—and xAI synergies, contrasting with OpenAI's lack of filings and reports of missed targets plus massive compute commitments delaying any public debut likely to Q4 2026 or later. While near-certain, risks like SEC review delays, volatile market conditions, or Elon Musk's strategic pivots could still intervene, though OpenAI acceleration remains unlikely without major announcements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoO IPO da SpaceX ou da OpenAI será o primeiro?
O IPO da SpaceX ou da OpenAI será o primeiro?
SpaceX
$73,263 Vol.
$73,263 Vol.
31 dez 2027
SpaceX
$73,263 Vol.
$73,263 Vol.
31 dez 2027
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's advanced initial public offering preparations, including a confidential SEC filing in early April and plans to release its prospectus next week ahead of a June roadshow targeting a $1.75–2 trillion valuation, have driven trader consensus to a 98.2% implied probability that it will IPO before OpenAI. This reflects SpaceX's integration of Starlink revenue growth—projected at $15–24 billion in 2026—and xAI synergies, contrasting with OpenAI's lack of filings and reports of missed targets plus massive compute commitments delaying any public debut likely to Q4 2026 or later. While near-certain, risks like SEC review delays, volatile market conditions, or Elon Musk's strategic pivots could still intervene, though OpenAI acceleration remains unlikely without major announcements.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
Volume
$73,263Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's advanced initial public offering preparations, including a confidential SEC filing in early April and plans to release its prospectus next week ahead of a June roadshow targeting a $1.75–2 trillion valuation, have driven trader consensus to a 98.2% implied probability that it will IPO before OpenAI. This reflects SpaceX's integration of Starlink revenue growth—projected at $15–24 billion in 2026—and xAI synergies, contrasting with OpenAI's lack of filings and reports of missed targets plus massive compute commitments delaying any public debut likely to Q4 2026 or later. While near-certain, risks like SEC review delays, volatile market conditions, or Elon Musk's strategic pivots could still intervene, though OpenAI acceleration remains unlikely without major announcements.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$73,263Data de Término
31 dez 2027Mercado Aberto
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX's advanced initial public offering preparations, including a confidential SEC filing in early April and plans to release its prospectus next week ahead of a June roadshow targeting a $1.75–2 trillion valuation, have driven trader consensus to a 98.2% implied probability that it will IPO before OpenAI. This reflects SpaceX's integration of Starlink revenue growth—projected at $15–24 billion in 2026—and xAI synergies, contrasting with OpenAI's lack of filings and reports of missed targets plus massive compute commitments delaying any public debut likely to Q4 2026 or later. While near-certain, risks like SEC review delays, volatile market conditions, or Elon Musk's strategic pivots could still intervene, though OpenAI acceleration remains unlikely without major announcements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions