Recent U.S.-Colombia military cooperation under the new de la Espriella administration, including joint counter-narcotics operations, $1 billion in U.S. security assistance, and Colombia’s entry into the Shield of the Americas coalition, has reinforced bilateral alignment against armed groups and drug networks. This partnership, formalized in mid-August 2026 shortly after the August 7 inauguration, builds on decades of security ties and follows earlier tensions with the prior government. Traders assign 97.9% probability to no invasion because verifiable developments point to coordinated action rather than confrontation. Potential shifts could stem from breakdowns in joint planning, Colombian domestic opposition to foreign troop involvement, or unforeseen regional escalations involving Venezuela or ELN forces.