Arkansas's strong Republican lean and incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton's comfortable primary win with over 80% of the vote underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93.8% Republican probability. The state has consistently supported GOP Senate candidates by wide margins in recent cycles, reinforced by polling averages showing double-digit leads and nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Solid or Safe Republican. Limited Democratic opposition from Hallie Shoffner has not altered this positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major national political shifts favoring Democrats, late-breaking controversies involving the incumbent, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters, though structural factors make such outcomes low-probability events before the November 2026 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Сенат Арканзаса
Победитель выборов в Сенат Арканзаса
$13,754 Объем
$13,754 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканец
94%
Демократ
4%
$13,754 Объем
$13,754 Объем
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Республиканец
$9,987 Объем
94%
Демократ
$3,767 Объем
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Arkansas's strong Republican lean and incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton's comfortable primary win with over 80% of the vote underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93.8% Republican probability. The state has consistently supported GOP Senate candidates by wide margins in recent cycles, reinforced by polling averages showing double-digit leads and nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Solid or Safe Republican. Limited Democratic opposition from Hallie Shoffner has not altered this positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major national political shifts favoring Democrats, late-breaking controversies involving the incumbent, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters, though structural factors make such outcomes low-probability events before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Открытие рынка: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Объем
$13,754Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Arkansas's strong Republican lean and incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton's comfortable primary win with over 80% of the vote underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93.8% Republican probability. The state has consistently supported GOP Senate candidates by wide margins in recent cycles, reinforced by polling averages showing double-digit leads and nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Solid or Safe Republican. Limited Democratic opposition from Hallie Shoffner has not altered this positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major national political shifts favoring Democrats, late-breaking controversies involving the incumbent, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters, though structural factors make such outcomes low-probability events before the November 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Объем
$13,754Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arkansas's strong Republican lean and incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton's comfortable primary win with over 80% of the vote underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93.8% Republican probability. The state has consistently supported GOP Senate candidates by wide margins in recent cycles, reinforced by polling averages showing double-digit leads and nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Solid or Safe Republican. Limited Democratic opposition from Hallie Shoffner has not altered this positioning. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major national political shifts favoring Democrats, late-breaking controversies involving the incumbent, or unusually high turnout among opposition voters, though structural factors make such outcomes low-probability events before the November 2026 general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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