Democrats' sustained lead on the generic congressional ballot, averaging 5 points in recent polls, underpins trader consensus for a 73% implied probability of a blue wave, defined as Democrats securing at least 218 House seats alongside net Senate gains. This reflects backlash against President Trump's sagging approval ratings amid the escalating Iran conflict, which has spiked gas prices via Strait of Hormuz tensions, and a wave of 38 Republican House retirements—far exceeding Democrats'—opening competitive districts. Strong Democratic wins in recent state legislative races and special elections signal momentum, while historical midterm patterns favor the opposition party. Primaries begin soon, with swing states like Georgia and Pennsylvania pivotal.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$42,890 Объем
$42,890 Объем
30 нояб. 2026 г.
Да
$42,890 Объем
$42,890 Объем
30 нояб. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfDemocrats' sustained lead on the generic congressional ballot, averaging 5 points in recent polls, underpins trader consensus for a 73% implied probability of a blue wave, defined as Democrats securing at least 218 House seats alongside net Senate gains. This reflects backlash against President Trump's sagging approval ratings amid the escalating Iran conflict, which has spiked gas prices via Strait of Hormuz tensions, and a wave of 38 Republican House retirements—far exceeding Democrats'—opening competitive districts. Strong Democratic wins in recent state legislative races and special elections signal momentum, while historical midterm patterns favor the opposition party. Primaries begin soon, with swing states like Georgia and Pennsylvania pivotal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Открытие рынка: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Объем
$42,890Дата окончания
30 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfDemocrats' sustained lead on the generic congressional ballot, averaging 5 points in recent polls, underpins trader consensus for a 73% implied probability of a blue wave, defined as Democrats securing at least 218 House seats alongside net Senate gains. This reflects backlash against President Trump's sagging approval ratings amid the escalating Iran conflict, which has spiked gas prices via Strait of Hormuz tensions, and a wave of 38 Republican House retirements—far exceeding Democrats'—opening competitive districts. Strong Democratic wins in recent state legislative races and special elections signal momentum, while historical midterm patterns favor the opposition party. Primaries begin soon, with swing states like Georgia and Pennsylvania pivotal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Объем
$42,890Дата окончания
30 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Democrats' sustained lead on the generic congressional ballot, averaging 5 points in recent polls, underpins trader consensus for a 73% implied probability of a blue wave, defined as Democrats securing at least 218 House seats alongside net Senate gains. This reflects backlash against President Trump's sagging approval ratings amid the escalating Iran conflict, which has spiked gas prices via Strait of Hormuz tensions, and a wave of 38 Republican House retirements—far exceeding Democrats'—opening competitive districts. Strong Democratic wins in recent state legislative races and special elections signal momentum, while historical midterm patterns favor the opposition party. Primaries begin soon, with swing states like Georgia and Pennsylvania pivotal.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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