Победитель 1-го тура президентских выборов в Колумбии?
Иван Сепеда Кастро 85%
Абелардо де ла Эсприэлья 16.2%
Палома Валенсия <1%
Вики Давила <1%
$5,969,920 Объем
$5,969,920 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
Иван Сепеда Кастро
$532,182 Объем
85%
Абелардо де ла Эсприэлья
$1,039,712 Объем
16%
Палома Валенсия
$593,187 Объем
<1%
Вики Давила
$441,350 Объем
<1%
Луис Гильберто Мурильо
$298,122 Объем
<1%
Клаудия Лопес
$300,293 Объем
<1%
Дэвид Луна Санчес
$283,057 Объем
<1%
Хуан Даниэль Овьедо
$156,932 Объем
<1%
Густаво Боливар
$229,484 Объем
<1%
Серхио Фахардо
$209,235 Объем
<1%
Хуан Мануэль Галан
$235,184 Объем
<1%
Герман Варгас Льерас
$287,138 Объем
<1%
Рой Баррерас
$285,258 Объем
<1%
Даниэль Кинтеро
$256,693 Объем
<1%
Хуан Карлос Пинсон
$144,829 Объем
<1%
Маурисио Кардэнас
$335,378 Объем
<1%
Энрике Пеньялоса
$305,383 Объем
<1%
Иван Сепеда Кастро 85%
Абелардо де ла Эсприэлья 16.2%
Палома Валенсия <1%
Вики Давила <1%
$5,969,920 Объем
$5,969,920 Объем
31 мая 2026 г.
Иван Сепеда Кастро
$532,182 Объем
85%
Абелардо де ла Эсприэлья
$1,039,712 Объем
16%
Палома Валенсия
$593,187 Объем
<1%
Вики Давила
$441,350 Объем
<1%
Луис Гильберто Мурильо
$298,122 Объем
<1%
Клаудия Лопес
$300,293 Объем
<1%
Дэвид Луна Санчес
$283,057 Объем
<1%
Хуан Даниэль Овьедо
$156,932 Объем
<1%
Густаво Боливар
$229,484 Объем
<1%
Серхио Фахардо
$209,235 Объем
<1%
Хуан Мануэль Галан
$235,184 Объем
<1%
Герман Варгас Льерас
$287,138 Объем
<1%
Рой Баррерас
$285,258 Объем
<1%
Даниэль Кинтеро
$256,693 Объем
<1%
Хуан Карлос Пинсон
$144,829 Объем
<1%
Маурисио Кардэнас
$335,378 Объем
<1%
Энрике Пеньялоса
$305,383 Объем
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Iván Cepeda Castro holds a commanding position in the May 31 first-round vote as the Historic Pact nominee and successor to President Gustavo Petro, with recent polls from Invamer, AtlasIntel, and Guarumo-EcoAnalítica placing him at 37–44 percent amid left-wing consolidation after his October 2025 primary victory. This lead stems from rising Petro approval ratings, Cepeda’s focus on Total Peace negotiations, agrarian reform, and judicial independence, and a fragmented opposition split between Abelardo de la Espriella’s National Salvation platform and Paloma Valencia’s Democratic Centre effort. Traders price the outcome at these levels because no rival has closed the gap in voting intention, though pre-election security incidents and upcoming debates could still influence turnout among undecided voters or shift second-place dynamics in the final weeks.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Iván Cepeda Castro holds a commanding position in the May 31 first-round vote as the Historic Pact nominee and successor to President Gustavo Petro, with recent polls from Invamer, AtlasIntel, and Guarumo-EcoAnalítica placing him at 37–44 percent amid left-wing consolidation after his October 2025 primary victory. This lead stems from rising Petro approval ratings, Cepeda’s focus on Total Peace negotiations, agrarian reform, and judicial independence, and a fragmented opposition split between Abelardo de la Espriella’s National Salvation platform and Paloma Valencia’s Democratic Centre effort. Traders price the outcome at these levels because no rival has closed the gap in voting intention, though pre-election security incidents and upcoming debates could still influence turnout among undecided voters or shift second-place dynamics in the final weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Apr 24 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella gains momentum in presidential race
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 14%7%
The ultraconservative lawyer saw a notable increase in market support as his campaign's 'iron-fisted' platform against criminal groups resonated with voters.
Apr 20 2026
Claudia López drops out and backs Cepeda
Claudia López drops to 0%6%
Claudia López withdrew from the race and threw her support behind Cepeda, causing her market price to fall to zero and further boosting Cepeda’s lead.
Apr 17 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro reaches new peak in market support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 95%9%
Market confidence in Iván Cepeda Castro's victory reached a new high, reflecting his sustained lead and the weakening of alternative candidates.
Apr 15 2026
Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo formally endorse Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 94%3%
Both Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo publicly endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating the left‑wing bloc and eliminating their own market shares.
Apr 14 2026
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 94%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, adding a new dynamic to the crowded field of over two dozen candidates.
Apr 10 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro solidifies lead as Colombia presidential front-runner
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 92%19%
In April 2026, Iván Cepeda Castro's market price surged to 92%, reflecting his solidified position as the leading candidate for Colombia's presidency, with other candidates' chances diminishing to near zero.
Apr 4 2026
Explosive attack kills 13 on bus in southwestern Colombia amid rising violence
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 87%13%
A deadly bombing in Cauca region heightened security concerns and political instability, likely benefiting candidates emphasizing law and order such as Iván Cepeda Castro, who is associated with the left-wing coalition. This event reinforced voter focus on security issues ahead of the election.
Apr 1 2026
Government announces drone‑based coca eradication program
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 91%10%
President Gustavo Petro’s administration unveiled a new drone program to destroy coca crops, boosting security credentials of left‑wing candidates and reinforcing support for Cepeda’s platform.
Mar 15 2026
Interparty primaries narrow Colombia presidential candidate field
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%8%
As the election approached, interparty primaries in early March led to a narrowing of the candidate field, consolidating support around frontrunners like Iván Cepeda Castro and diminishing prospects for others such as Paloma Valencia and David Luna Sánchez.
Mar 11 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro surges in presidential polling
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 79%9%
Following a period of consolidation, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro saw a significant increase in his polling numbers, solidifying his position as a frontrunner in the presidential race.
Mar 5 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella withdraws from race
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 13%6%
Abelardo de la Espriella announced his withdrawal citing personal reasons, causing his market price to tumble as his supporters dispersed.
Mar 3 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in presidential race
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%7%
Following interparty primaries, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro emerged as a frontrunner, causing his market price to rise significantly.
Mar 1 2026
Colombian plane crash kills 15 including congress member Diógenes Quintero
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 76%9%
The tragic crash heightened awareness of security and political risks in Colombia, potentially consolidating support for candidates promising stability and peace, such as Iván Cepeda Castro, who saw increased market support following the incident.
Mar 1 2026
Political tensions rise as President Gustavo Petro clashes with U.S. over Venezuela
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%11%
President Gustavo Petro's confrontational stance against U.S. policies on Venezuela heightened political tensions, influencing the electoral environment and bolstering support for candidates aligned with his coalition, notably Iván Cepeda Castro.
Feb 28 2026
Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading with 68% support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 70%7%
A national poll released by a leading Colombian survey firm placed Iván Cepeda at 68% support, far ahead of any rival, prompting a sharp rise in his market price as voters coalesced around his candidacy.
Feb 10 2026
Colombia announces drone use to destroy coca crops amid cocaine production surge
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 69%8%
The government’s decision to use drones for coca crop eradication signaled a tougher stance on drug trafficking, influencing voter perceptions of candidates' security policies. This likely boosted support for Iván Cepeda Castro, who is part of the ruling coalition addressing these issues.
Jan 28 2026
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%10%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential campaign to defend his late son's political legacy despite falling out with the Democratic Center party. This event highlighted the ongoing political violence and instability in Colombia ahead of the 2026 election, potentially impacting voter sentiment and market perceptions of candidate viability.
Jan 15 2026
Colombian President Gustavo Petro clashes with Trump over Venezuela policy
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Petro’s confrontation with former U.S. President Trump over Venezuela increased political polarization and energized his coalition’s base, benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro’s market position as a candidate aligned with Petro’s left-wing coalition.
Jan 7 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella's ultraconservative stance gains attention
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 31%8%
Abelardo de la Espriella, an ultraconservative lawyer admiring Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, gained attention for his promise to take a hardline approach against criminal groups, briefly boosting his market position before it declined.
Jan 7 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the election dynamics by introducing a new contender and influencing voter perceptions of the Democratic Colombia party. This event likely contributed to shifts in candidate support early in the year.
Jan 7 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 31%18%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the political landscape and voter dynamics. This event likely influenced market perceptions of candidate viability, particularly affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's support as the field adjusted.
Jan 6 2026
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his son's legacy, adding another candidate to the crowded field.
Dec 30 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay launches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%6%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, emphasizing his son's legacy and drawing attention to the Historical Pact coalition led by Ivan Cepeda, boosting Cepeda's perceived viability.
Dec 30 2025
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in polls amid left-wing coalition support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%8%
Iván Cepeda Castro, a senator from President Gustavo Petro's left-wing Historical Pact coalition, began gaining significant support in polls, reflecting increased market confidence in his candidacy for the presidency. This surge was likely influenced by his coalition's political strength and Petro's administration's policies.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Iván Cepeda Castro holds a commanding position in the May 31 first-round vote as the Historic Pact nominee and successor to President Gustavo Petro, with recent polls from Invamer, AtlasIntel, and Guarumo-EcoAnalítica placing him at 37–44 percent amid left-wing consolidation after his October 2025 primary victory. This lead stems from rising Petro approval ratings, Cepeda’s focus on Total Peace negotiations, agrarian reform, and judicial independence, and a fragmented opposition split between Abelardo de la Espriella’s National Salvation platform and Paloma Valencia’s Democratic Centre effort. Traders price the outcome at these levels because no rival has closed the gap in voting intention, though pre-election security incidents and upcoming debates could still influence turnout among undecided voters or shift second-place dynamics in the final weeks.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Iván Cepeda Castro holds a commanding position in the May 31 first-round vote as the Historic Pact nominee and successor to President Gustavo Petro, with recent polls from Invamer, AtlasIntel, and Guarumo-EcoAnalítica placing him at 37–44 percent amid left-wing consolidation after his October 2025 primary victory. This lead stems from rising Petro approval ratings, Cepeda’s focus on Total Peace negotiations, agrarian reform, and judicial independence, and a fragmented opposition split between Abelardo de la Espriella’s National Salvation platform and Paloma Valencia’s Democratic Centre effort. Traders price the outcome at these levels because no rival has closed the gap in voting intention, though pre-election security incidents and upcoming debates could still influence turnout among undecided voters or shift second-place dynamics in the final weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Apr 24 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella gains momentum in presidential race
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 14%7%
The ultraconservative lawyer saw a notable increase in market support as his campaign's 'iron-fisted' platform against criminal groups resonated with voters.
Apr 20 2026
Claudia López drops out and backs Cepeda
Claudia López drops to 0%6%
Claudia López withdrew from the race and threw her support behind Cepeda, causing her market price to fall to zero and further boosting Cepeda’s lead.
Apr 17 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro reaches new peak in market support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 95%9%
Market confidence in Iván Cepeda Castro's victory reached a new high, reflecting his sustained lead and the weakening of alternative candidates.
Apr 15 2026
Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo formally endorse Cepeda
Iván Cepeda Castro rises to 94%3%
Both Vicky Dávila and Luis Gilberto Murillo publicly endorsed Iván Cepeda, consolidating the left‑wing bloc and eliminating their own market shares.
Apr 14 2026
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 94%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy to defend his son's political legacy, adding a new dynamic to the crowded field of over two dozen candidates.
Apr 10 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro solidifies lead as Colombia presidential front-runner
Iván Cepeda Castro surges to 92%19%
In April 2026, Iván Cepeda Castro's market price surged to 92%, reflecting his solidified position as the leading candidate for Colombia's presidency, with other candidates' chances diminishing to near zero.
Apr 4 2026
Explosive attack kills 13 on bus in southwestern Colombia amid rising violence
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 87%13%
A deadly bombing in Cauca region heightened security concerns and political instability, likely benefiting candidates emphasizing law and order such as Iván Cepeda Castro, who is associated with the left-wing coalition. This event reinforced voter focus on security issues ahead of the election.
Apr 1 2026
Government announces drone‑based coca eradication program
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 91%10%
President Gustavo Petro’s administration unveiled a new drone program to destroy coca crops, boosting security credentials of left‑wing candidates and reinforcing support for Cepeda’s platform.
Mar 15 2026
Interparty primaries narrow Colombia presidential candidate field
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%8%
As the election approached, interparty primaries in early March led to a narrowing of the candidate field, consolidating support around frontrunners like Iván Cepeda Castro and diminishing prospects for others such as Paloma Valencia and David Luna Sánchez.
Mar 11 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro surges in presidential polling
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 79%9%
Following a period of consolidation, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro saw a significant increase in his polling numbers, solidifying his position as a frontrunner in the presidential race.
Mar 5 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella withdraws from race
Abelardo de la Espriella drops to 13%6%
Abelardo de la Espriella announced his withdrawal citing personal reasons, causing his market price to tumble as his supporters dispersed.
Mar 3 2026
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in presidential race
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%7%
Following interparty primaries, Senator Iván Cepeda Castro emerged as a frontrunner, causing his market price to rise significantly.
Mar 1 2026
Colombian plane crash kills 15 including congress member Diógenes Quintero
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 76%9%
The tragic crash heightened awareness of security and political risks in Colombia, potentially consolidating support for candidates promising stability and peace, such as Iván Cepeda Castro, who saw increased market support following the incident.
Mar 1 2026
Political tensions rise as President Gustavo Petro clashes with U.S. over Venezuela
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 75%11%
President Gustavo Petro's confrontational stance against U.S. policies on Venezuela heightened political tensions, influencing the electoral environment and bolstering support for candidates aligned with his coalition, notably Iván Cepeda Castro.
Feb 28 2026
Poll shows Iván Cepeda leading with 68% support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 70%7%
A national poll released by a leading Colombian survey firm placed Iván Cepeda at 68% support, far ahead of any rival, prompting a sharp rise in his market price as voters coalesced around his candidacy.
Feb 10 2026
Colombia announces drone use to destroy coca crops amid cocaine production surge
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 69%8%
The government’s decision to use drones for coca crop eradication signaled a tougher stance on drug trafficking, influencing voter perceptions of candidates' security policies. This likely boosted support for Iván Cepeda Castro, who is part of the ruling coalition addressing these issues.
Jan 28 2026
Father of slain Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%10%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential campaign to defend his late son's political legacy despite falling out with the Democratic Center party. This event highlighted the ongoing political violence and instability in Colombia ahead of the 2026 election, potentially impacting voter sentiment and market perceptions of candidate viability.
Jan 15 2026
Colombian President Gustavo Petro clashes with Trump over Venezuela policy
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Petro’s confrontation with former U.S. President Trump over Venezuela increased political polarization and energized his coalition’s base, benefiting Iván Cepeda Castro’s market position as a candidate aligned with Petro’s left-wing coalition.
Jan 7 2026
Abelardo de la Espriella's ultraconservative stance gains attention
Abelardo de la Espriella jumps to 31%8%
Abelardo de la Espriella, an ultraconservative lawyer admiring Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, gained attention for his promise to take a hardline approach against criminal groups, briefly boosting his market position before it declined.
Jan 7 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%8%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the election dynamics by introducing a new contender and influencing voter perceptions of the Democratic Colombia party. This event likely contributed to shifts in candidate support early in the year.
Jan 7 2026
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Abelardo de la Espriella plunges to 31%18%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his late son's political legacy, impacting the political landscape and voter dynamics. This event likely influenced market perceptions of candidate viability, particularly affecting Abelardo de la Espriella's support as the field adjusted.
Jan 6 2026
Father of killed Colombian candidate Miguel Uribe relaunches presidential bid
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his presidential candidacy to defend his son's legacy, adding another candidate to the crowded field.
Dec 30 2025
Father of slain candidate Miguel Uribe Turbay launches presidential bid
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 55%6%
Miguel Uribe Londoño announced his candidacy, emphasizing his son's legacy and drawing attention to the Historical Pact coalition led by Ivan Cepeda, boosting Cepeda's perceived viability.
Dec 30 2025
Iván Cepeda Castro gains momentum in polls amid left-wing coalition support
Iván Cepeda Castro jumps to 57%8%
Iván Cepeda Castro, a senator from President Gustavo Petro's left-wing Historical Pact coalition, began gaining significant support in polls, reflecting increased market confidence in his candidacy for the presidency. This surge was likely influenced by his coalition's political strength and Petro's administration's policies.
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Часто задаваемые вопросы
« Победитель 1-го тура президентских выборов в Колумбии?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 18 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Иван Сепеда Кастро» с 85%, за ним следует «Абелардо де ла Эсприэлья» с 16%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 85¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 85%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.
На сегодняшний день « Победитель 1-го тура президентских выборов в Колумбии?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $6 million с момента запуска рынка Dec 23, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.
Чтобы торговать на « Победитель 1-го тура президентских выборов в Колумбии?», просмотри 18 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.
Текущий фаворит для « Победитель 1-го тура президентских выборов в Колумбии?» — «Иван Сепеда Кастро» с 85%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 85%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Абелардо де ла Эсприэлья» с 16%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.
Правила разрешения « Победитель 1-го тура президентских выборов в Колумбии?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.
Да. Тебе не нужно торговать, чтобы оставаться в курсе. Эта страница служит трекером в реальном времени для « Победитель 1-го тура президентских выборов в Колумбии?». Вероятности исходов обновляются в реальном времени по мере поступления новых сделок. Ты можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки и читать раздел комментариев, чтобы узнать мнение других трейдеров. Ты также можешь использовать фильтры временного диапазона на графике, чтобы увидеть, как менялись коэффициенты со временем.
Коэффициенты Polymarket устанавливаются реальными трейдерами, вкладывающими реальные деньги в свои убеждения, что обычно приводит к точным прогнозам. С объёмом торгов $6 million по “ Победитель 1-го тура президентских выборов в Колумбии?” эти цены агрегируют коллективные знания и убеждённость тысяч участников — часто превосходя опросы, экспертные прогнозы и традиционные исследования. Рынки прогнозов, такие как Polymarket, имеют сильный послужной список точности, особенно когда события приближаются к дате разрешения. Например, месячный показатель точности Polymarket составляет 94%. Для получения последних статистических данных о точности прогнозов Polymarket посети страницу точности на Polymarket.
Чтобы совершить первую сделку на « Победитель 1-го тура президентских выборов в Колумбии?», зарегистрируй бесплатный аккаунт на Polymarket и пополни его с помощью криптовалюты, кредитной или дебетовой карты или банковского перевода. После пополнения аккаунта вернись на эту страницу, выбери исход, на который хочешь торговать, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты новичок на рынках прогнозов, нажми на ссылку «Как это работает» вверху любой страницы Polymarket для пошагового руководства.
На Polymarket цена каждого исхода представляет подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Цена 85¢ для «Иван Сепеда Кастро» на рынке « Победитель 1-го тура президентских выборов в Колумбии?» означает, что трейдеры коллективно оценивают вероятность того, что «Иван Сепеда Кастро» будет правильным результатом, примерно в 85%. Если ты купишь акции «Да» по 85¢ и исход окажется правильным, ты получишь $1,00 за акцию — прибыль 15¢ за акцию. Если нет — эти акции будут стоить $0.
Рынок « Победитель 1-го тура президентских выборов в Колумбии?» запланирован к разрешению примерно May 31, 2026. Это означает, что торговля остаётся открытой, а коэффициенты продолжат меняться до этой даты. Точные сроки разрешения зависят от момента появления официального результата, как описано в разделе «Правила».
Рынок « Победитель 1-го тура президентских выборов в Колумбии?» имеет активное сообщество из 39 комментариев, где трейдеры делятся своим анализом, обсуждают исходы и последние события. Прокрути вниз до раздела комментариев, чтобы прочитать, что думают другие участники. Ты также можешь фильтровать по «Топ-держателям» или проверить вкладку «Активность» для ленты сделок в реальном времени.
Polymarket — крупнейший в мире рынок прогнозов, где ты можешь оставаться в курсе событий и зарабатывать на своих знаниях о реальных событиях. Трейдеры покупают и продают акции на исходы по темам от политики и выборов до криптовалют, финансов, спорта, технологий и культуры, включая рынки вроде « Победитель 1-го тура президентских выборов в Колумбии?». Цены отражают вероятности в реальном времени, подкреплённые финансовыми убеждениями, зачастую обеспечивая более быстрые и точные сигналы, чем опросы, эксперты или традиционные исследования.
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