Recent July 2026 CPI data, showing core inflation easing to 2.5% year-over-year with a modest 0.2% monthly rise, has anchored trader expectations for the upcoming Core PCE release on August 26. Economists' models, including those from the Cleveland Fed and consensus forecasts, map this to a 3.3% Core PCE YoY print that would match June's level and continue the recent disinflation trend in the Fed's preferred gauge. Market-implied odds heavily favor 3.3% at 73.5% over 3.2%, reflecting the tight linkage between CPI components like shelter and services and PCE methodology, while the slim probability on softer outcomes captures residual uncertainty around monthly volatility and seasonal adjustments ahead of the FOMC's September meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено3.3% 74%
3.2% 27%
3.4% <1%
≤3.0% <1%
$39,803 Объем
$39,803 Объем
26 авг. 2026 г.
≤3.0%
<1%
3.1%
<1%
3.2%
27%
3.3%
74%
3.4%
<1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%+
<1%
3.3% 74%
3.2% 27%
3.4% <1%
≤3.0% <1%
$39,803 Объем
$39,803 Объем
26 авг. 2026 г.
≤3.0%
$1,519 Объем
<1%
3.1%
$1,684 Объем
<1%
3.2%
$10,865 Объем
27%
3.3%
$21,909 Объем
74%
3.4%
$1,721 Объем
<1%
3.5%
$942 Объем
<1%
3.6%+
$1,163 Объем
<1%
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July 2026 CPI data, showing core inflation easing to 2.5% year-over-year with a modest 0.2% monthly rise, has anchored trader expectations for the upcoming Core PCE release on August 26. Economists' models, including those from the Cleveland Fed and consensus forecasts, map this to a 3.3% Core PCE YoY print that would match June's level and continue the recent disinflation trend in the Fed's preferred gauge. Market-implied odds heavily favor 3.3% at 73.5% over 3.2%, reflecting the tight linkage between CPI components like shelter and services and PCE methodology, while the slim probability on softer outcomes captures residual uncertainty around monthly volatility and seasonal adjustments ahead of the FOMC's September meeting.
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Открытие рынка: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Объем
$39,803Дата окончания
26 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July 2026 CPI data, showing core inflation easing to 2.5% year-over-year with a modest 0.2% monthly rise, has anchored trader expectations for the upcoming Core PCE release on August 26. Economists' models, including those from the Cleveland Fed and consensus forecasts, map this to a 3.3% Core PCE YoY print that would match June's level and continue the recent disinflation trend in the Fed's preferred gauge. Market-implied odds heavily favor 3.3% at 73.5% over 3.2%, reflecting the tight linkage between CPI components like shelter and services and PCE methodology, while the slim probability on softer outcomes captures residual uncertainty around monthly volatility and seasonal adjustments ahead of the FOMC's September meeting.
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Объем
$39,803Дата окончания
26 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 CPI data, showing core inflation easing to 2.5% year-over-year with a modest 0.2% monthly rise, has anchored trader expectations for the upcoming Core PCE release on August 26. Economists' models, including those from the Cleveland Fed and consensus forecasts, map this to a 3.3% Core PCE YoY print that would match June's level and continue the recent disinflation trend in the Fed's preferred gauge. Market-implied odds heavily favor 3.3% at 73.5% over 3.2%, reflecting the tight linkage between CPI components like shelter and services and PCE methodology, while the slim probability on softer outcomes captures residual uncertainty around monthly volatility and seasonal adjustments ahead of the FOMC's September meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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