Trump’s Truth Social activity remains the central driver of this market, with traders anchoring on a long-established average of roughly 18–19 posts per day that has held steady through the first four months of 2026. Recent late-night posting surges, including a documented 55-post burst spanning late May 11 into early May 12, illustrate how single sessions can quickly add dozens of posts and push weekly totals toward or beyond the 160–179 range currently favored at 41 percent. Geopolitical developments, particularly ongoing tensions with Iran, continue to coincide with elevated volume, yet the absence of sustained daily escalation has kept the 140–159 bin competitive at 34 percent. The tight spread between these two leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether routine baseline activity or another concentrated flurry will dominate the remaining days of the resolution window.