Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current presidential term runs through 2028 under Turkey’s constitution, with no national elections scheduled before then and no constitutional mechanism likely to force an early departure by December 2026. He has publicly framed 2026 as a “year of reform” and remains actively engaged in diplomacy, including recent summits and bilateral meetings. Speculation about health concerns persists but has not altered his schedule or triggered succession procedures. Opposition calls for snap elections have produced no parliamentary support, and the ruling coalition maintains firm control over legislative and institutional levers. Traders therefore assign an 89.5 percent probability that Erdoğan completes the year in office, consistent with historical patterns of incumbents serving full terms absent acute crises.