Erdoğan’s current presidential term extends through 2028 under Turkey’s constitution, with the next scheduled elections set for May of that year and no parliamentary vote yet called for an earlier contest requiring the three-fifths majority needed to enable a third candidacy. The ruling alliance holds sufficient seats to block removal efforts while opposition parties remain fragmented by court rulings, leadership disputes, and the formation of new groups, reducing near-term pressure on the incumbent. Traders assign a 95.5 percent probability that he remains in office by December 31, 2026, reflecting these structural barriers and the absence of decisive health, legal, or coalition-breaking developments in recent months. Scenarios such as a sudden medical event, unexpected parliamentary realignment, or major scandal could still shift the outcome before the deadline.