North Korea’s formal policy shift—codified in recent constitutional amendments and Supreme People’s Assembly statements—now treats South Korea as a separate hostile state rather than a unification target, reducing incentives for large-scale conventional invasion. Pyongyang has shown no troop mobilization, armor concentrations, or logistical buildup along the DMZ in the past month, while focusing resources on nuclear and missile capabilities, naval expansion, and ties with Russia. Routine provocations, including April ballistic-missile tests and a limited May maritime incursion, remain below thresholds that would signal imminent offensive intent. South Korea’s robust defenses, US alliance commitments, and ongoing joint exercises further raise the costs of any such move. Traders’ 94 percent consensus on “No” reflects this sustained absence of preparatory indicators through the end of 2026, though sudden diplomatic breakdown or miscalculation could still alter the outlook.