Recent July CPI data showing inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year alongside a softer employment report with a 23,000 job decline have tempered expectations for near-term tightening, reinforcing trader consensus around no change at the October FOMC meeting. The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% in late July despite three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, highlighting persistent inflation above the 2% target amid Middle East-related supply pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with a modest 24% chance of a 25 bp increase priced in as officials await further labor market and price data before the next policy step. The September FOMC gathering and August CPI release due mid-month represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоРешение ФРС в октябре?
Решение ФРС в октябре?
Без изменений 68%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 24%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 6%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. 2.1%
$563,710 Объем
$563,710 Объем
28 окт. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
2%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
6%
Без изменений
68%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
24%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
2%
Без изменений 68%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 24%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 6%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. 2.1%
$563,710 Объем
$563,710 Объем
28 окт. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$121,260 Объем
2%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$151,919 Объем
6%
Без изменений
$114,968 Объем
68%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$129,965 Объем
24%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$45,598 Объем
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July CPI data showing inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year alongside a softer employment report with a 23,000 job decline have tempered expectations for near-term tightening, reinforcing trader consensus around no change at the October FOMC meeting. The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% in late July despite three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, highlighting persistent inflation above the 2% target amid Middle East-related supply pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with a modest 24% chance of a 25 bp increase priced in as officials await further labor market and price data before the next policy step. The September FOMC gathering and August CPI release due mid-month represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Объем
$563,710Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July CPI data showing inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year alongside a softer employment report with a 23,000 job decline have tempered expectations for near-term tightening, reinforcing trader consensus around no change at the October FOMC meeting. The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% in late July despite three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, highlighting persistent inflation above the 2% target amid Middle East-related supply pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with a modest 24% chance of a 25 bp increase priced in as officials await further labor market and price data before the next policy step. The September FOMC gathering and August CPI release due mid-month represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$563,710Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data showing inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year alongside a softer employment report with a 23,000 job decline have tempered expectations for near-term tightening, reinforcing trader consensus around no change at the October FOMC meeting. The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% in late July despite three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, highlighting persistent inflation above the 2% target amid Middle East-related supply pressures. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with a modest 24% chance of a 25 bp increase priced in as officials await further labor market and price data before the next policy step. The September FOMC gathering and August CPI release due mid-month represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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