**Trader consensus centers on 39–41°C as the most probable range for Jeddah’s daily maximum on August 17, reflecting the city’s typical late-summer climatology and the National Center for Meteorology’s seasonal outlook for 1–2.5 °C above-normal temperatures across the Makkah region.** Jeddah’s Red Sea coastal location produces high humidity that limits extreme daytime peaks relative to inland sites, with long-term August averages near 38–40 °C. Current model guidance and recent observations show no major synoptic cooling or dust events capable of suppressing the maximum below this band, while the absence of an intense heatwave keeps probabilities for 42 °C or higher modest. The market therefore aggregates real-capital assessments of these stable, slightly elevated thermal conditions expected to persist into the resolution window.