Short-term forecast uncertainty is driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–32 °C for Manila’s highest temperature on August 31. Late-August monsoon conditions, including variable cloud cover, scattered afternoon thunderstorms, and high humidity typical of the southwest monsoon season, create day-to-day variability that limits model consensus on peak values. PAGASA guidance and ensemble runs show modest spread in projected maximums, with urban heat-island effects and land-sea breeze circulation adding local complexity. Traders appear to weigh recent observed highs near 31 °C against the possibility of stronger convective activity suppressing temperatures by 1–2 °C. Updated model runs and the next official PAGASA bulletin are the key near-term catalysts likely to shift probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Маниле 31 августа?
Самая высокая температура в Маниле 31 августа?
31°C 32%
30°C 31%
32°C 28%
34°C 16%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 авг. 2026 г.
25°C или ниже
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
14%
29°C
12%
30°C
28%
31°C
26%
32°C
21%
33°C
10%
34°C
16%
35°C или выше
<1%
31°C 32%
30°C 31%
32°C 28%
34°C 16%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 авг. 2026 г.
25°C или ниже
$117 Объем
<1%
26°C
$0 Объем
<1%
27°C
$0 Объем
1%
28°C
$0 Объем
14%
29°C
$8 Объем
12%
30°C
$7 Объем
28%
31°C
$15 Объем
26%
32°C
$327 Объем
21%
33°C
$20 Объем
10%
34°C
$0 Объем
16%
35°C или выше
$111 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty is driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–32 °C for Manila’s highest temperature on August 31. Late-August monsoon conditions, including variable cloud cover, scattered afternoon thunderstorms, and high humidity typical of the southwest monsoon season, create day-to-day variability that limits model consensus on peak values. PAGASA guidance and ensemble runs show modest spread in projected maximums, with urban heat-island effects and land-sea breeze circulation adding local complexity. Traders appear to weigh recent observed highs near 31 °C against the possibility of stronger convective activity suppressing temperatures by 1–2 °C. Updated model runs and the next official PAGASA bulletin are the key near-term catalysts likely to shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Объем
$605Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty is driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–32 °C for Manila’s highest temperature on August 31. Late-August monsoon conditions, including variable cloud cover, scattered afternoon thunderstorms, and high humidity typical of the southwest monsoon season, create day-to-day variability that limits model consensus on peak values. PAGASA guidance and ensemble runs show modest spread in projected maximums, with urban heat-island effects and land-sea breeze circulation adding local complexity. Traders appear to weigh recent observed highs near 31 °C against the possibility of stronger convective activity suppressing temperatures by 1–2 °C. Updated model runs and the next official PAGASA bulletin are the key near-term catalysts likely to shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$605Дата окончания
31 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 29, 2026, 12:58 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecast uncertainty is driving the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 30–32 °C for Manila’s highest temperature on August 31. Late-August monsoon conditions, including variable cloud cover, scattered afternoon thunderstorms, and high humidity typical of the southwest monsoon season, create day-to-day variability that limits model consensus on peak values. PAGASA guidance and ensemble runs show modest spread in projected maximums, with urban heat-island effects and land-sea breeze circulation adding local complexity. Traders appear to weigh recent observed highs near 31 °C against the possibility of stronger convective activity suppressing temperatures by 1–2 °C. Updated model runs and the next official PAGASA bulletin are the key near-term catalysts likely to shift probabilities.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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