Recent forecasts from European models indicate a peak temperature in Warsaw on August 5 likely between 36–38°C, driven by persistent high pressure, clear skies, and southerly advection of warm continental air. Radiative heating under minimal cloud cover and light winds favors the upper end of that range, consistent with the market-implied probabilities clustering around 37°C. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread, though slight variations in boundary-layer moisture or timing of any weak frontal passage could shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C. Historical August extremes in the region rarely exceed 35°C without similar blocking patterns, providing context for the current elevated outlook. Updated model runs later today will refine these estimates ahead of final observations.