Trader consensus favors a 37°C peak in Wuhan on August 5, 2026, at 66.5% implied probability, with 38°C trailing at 30%. This positioning reflects official forecast guidance from meteorological sources projecting a daily high near 35–37°C under typical subtropical summer conditions of high humidity and limited cloud cover. Regional model consensus points to modest daytime heating without strong subsidence or heat dome reinforcement that would push readings to 39°C or above, outcomes priced below 1%. Recent observations from early August show consistent 34–36°C maxima across central China, aligning with climatological baselines where August highs average 33–35°C. Updated model runs and any late-day convective activity will be key variables ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая высокая температура в Ухане 5 августа?
37°C 75%
38°C 50%
39°C <1%
40°C or higher <1%
$25,152 Объем
$25,152 Объем
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
67%
38°C
39%
39°C
1%
40°C or higher
<1%
37°C 75%
38°C 50%
39°C <1%
40°C or higher <1%
$25,152 Объем
$25,152 Объем
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
67%
38°C
39%
39°C
1%
40°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 3, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a 37°C peak in Wuhan on August 5, 2026, at 66.5% implied probability, with 38°C trailing at 30%. This positioning reflects official forecast guidance from meteorological sources projecting a daily high near 35–37°C under typical subtropical summer conditions of high humidity and limited cloud cover. Regional model consensus points to modest daytime heating without strong subsidence or heat dome reinforcement that would push readings to 39°C or above, outcomes priced below 1%. Recent observations from early August show consistent 34–36°C maxima across central China, aligning with climatological baselines where August highs average 33–35°C. Updated model runs and any late-day convective activity will be key variables ahead of resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено


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