Skip to main content
icon for Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?
Мир·Ближний Восток

Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?

icon for Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?
Мир·Ближний Восток

Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?

Моджтаба Хаменеи 64.7%

Реза Пехлеви 8%

Мохаммад-Багер Калибаф 4.7%

Нет главы государства 2.9%

Polymarket

$8,664,465 Объем

Моджтаба Хаменеи 64.7%

Реза Пехлеви 8%

Мохаммад-Багер Калибаф 4.7%

Нет главы государства 2.9%

Polymarket

$8,664,465 Объем

Моджтаба Хаменеи

$2,077,779 Объем

65%

Реза Пехлеви

$208,965 Объем

8%

Мохаммад-Багер Калибаф

$228,327 Объем

5%

Нет главы государства

$488,228 Объем

3%

Аббас Арагчи

$213,976 Объем

2%

Ахмад Вahidi

$299,316 Объем

2%

Масуд Пезешкиан

$326,254 Объем

2%

Махмуд Ахмадинежад

$142,570 Объем

1%

Алиреза Арафи

$860,892 Объем

1%

Хасан Рухани

$354,474 Объем

1%

Навид Шомали

$87,163 Объем

1%

Хассан Хомейни

$813,099 Объем

1%

Марьям Раджави

$318,646 Объем

1%

Массуд Раджави

$75,414 Объем

1%

Гулам-Али Хаддад-Адель

$90,845 Объем

1%

Мохаммад Хатами

$448,007 Объем

<1%

Садег Лариджани

$195,597 Объем

<1%

Али Асгар Хеджази

$93,573 Объем

<1%

Мухаммад Мирбакири

$290,404 Объем

<1%

Хассан Шариатмадари

$179,711 Объем

<1%

Реза Пирзаде

$52,010 Объем

<1%

Мостафа Пурмохаммади

$101,935 Объем

<1%

Саид Джалили

$83,015 Объем

<1%

Мохсен Араки

$64,445 Объем

<1%

Сейед Хоссейн Мусавиан

$52,716 Объем

<1%

Мустафа Хиджри

$33,414 Объем

<1%

Али Мотахари

$87,102 Объем

<1%

Садег Махсули

$76,770 Объем

<1%

Насир Хоссейни

$39,291 Объем

<1%

Ахмад Хоссейни Хорасани

$43,666 Объем

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in early 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes triggered an expedited succession process by the Assembly of Experts, which selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader in March amid strong backing from Revolutionary Guard commanders. Trader consensus now places Mojtaba at the front of the field for year-end 2026, reflecting his institutional ties and the Guards’ influence over the clerical vote, though his reported injuries and limited public role have introduced uncertainty about long-term stability. Other listed candidates, including Reza Pahlavi and Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, register far lower probabilities because they lack comparable access to the security apparatus or formal endorsement within the current power structure. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments through the remainder of the year could still shift these implied probabilities.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Объем
$8,664,465
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in early 2026 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes triggered an expedited succession process by the Assembly of Experts, which selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader in March amid strong backing from Revolutionary Guard commanders. Trader consensus now places Mojtaba at the front of the field for year-end 2026, reflecting his institutional ties and the Guards’ influence over the clerical vote, though his reported injuries and limited public role have introduced uncertainty about long-term stability. Other listed candidates, including Reza Pahlavi and Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, register far lower probabilities because they lack comparable access to the security apparatus or formal endorsement within the current power structure. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments through the remainder of the year could still shift these implied probabilities.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Объем
$8,664,465
Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 32 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Моджтаба Хаменеи» с 65%, за ним следует «Реза Пехлеви» с 8%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 65¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 65%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $8.7 million с момента запуска рынка Mar 1, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?», просмотри 32 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» — «Моджтаба Хаменеи» с 65%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 65%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Реза Пехлеви» с 8%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Лидер Ирана в конце 2026 года?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.