Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.3% reflecting Iran's unyielding military dominance over Kurdish-majority provinces and the absence of any formal independence declaration by fragmented Kurdish opposition groups amid the 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis. Despite a February coalition of anti-regime parties like PDKI and PJAK aiming to challenge Tehran, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) operations dismantled purported US-Israel-backed networks in Kurdistan and Kermanshah provinces as recently as late April, stifling separatist momentum without sparking broader uprising. High confidence stems from historical suppression patterns, lack of unified control akin to Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government, and no viable path to territorial sovereignty or international recognition. Late-breaking scenarios like full regime collapse or escalated foreign intervention could shift odds, though structural barriers remain formidable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКурды провозглашают независимость от Ирана?
Курды провозглашают независимость от Ирана?
Да
$138,662 Объем
$138,662 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$138,662 Объем
$138,662 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.3% reflecting Iran's unyielding military dominance over Kurdish-majority provinces and the absence of any formal independence declaration by fragmented Kurdish opposition groups amid the 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis. Despite a February coalition of anti-regime parties like PDKI and PJAK aiming to challenge Tehran, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) operations dismantled purported US-Israel-backed networks in Kurdistan and Kermanshah provinces as recently as late April, stifling separatist momentum without sparking broader uprising. High confidence stems from historical suppression patterns, lack of unified control akin to Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government, and no viable path to territorial sovereignty or international recognition. Late-breaking scenarios like full regime collapse or escalated foreign intervention could shift odds, though structural barriers remain formidable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ET
Объем
$138,662Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.3% reflecting Iran's unyielding military dominance over Kurdish-majority provinces and the absence of any formal independence declaration by fragmented Kurdish opposition groups amid the 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis. Despite a February coalition of anti-regime parties like PDKI and PJAK aiming to challenge Tehran, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) operations dismantled purported US-Israel-backed networks in Kurdistan and Kermanshah provinces as recently as late April, stifling separatist momentum without sparking broader uprising. High confidence stems from historical suppression patterns, lack of unified control akin to Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government, and no viable path to territorial sovereignty or international recognition. Late-breaking scenarios like full regime collapse or escalated foreign intervention could shift odds, though structural barriers remain formidable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if PJAK (Party for a Free Life in Kurdistan), the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI), Komala, the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), or a successor Kurdish organization with broad recognition among Iranian Kurdish opposition groups, or a Kurdish official within Iran formally declares the creation of a new independent state separate from Iran and asserts governing authority over a specified territory within Iran before June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying public announcement alone is sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether governing authority is actually established, maintained, or recognized.
A declaration must include a clear public statement by the organization or its leadership announcing the establishment of an independent political entity separate from Iran and claiming governmental authority over an identified geographic area previously under Iranian governance.
The claimed territory does not need to be precisely defined but must be at least partially specified. A majority of the claimed territory must lie within the internationally recognized borders of Iran as they existed at the time of this market’s creation.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$138,662Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 3, 2026, 6:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.3% reflecting Iran's unyielding military dominance over Kurdish-majority provinces and the absence of any formal independence declaration by fragmented Kurdish opposition groups amid the 2026 Kurdish-Iranian crisis. Despite a February coalition of anti-regime parties like PDKI and PJAK aiming to challenge Tehran, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) operations dismantled purported US-Israel-backed networks in Kurdistan and Kermanshah provinces as recently as late April, stifling separatist momentum without sparking broader uprising. High confidence stems from historical suppression patterns, lack of unified control akin to Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government, and no viable path to territorial sovereignty or international recognition. Late-breaking scenarios like full regime collapse or escalated foreign intervention could shift odds, though structural barriers remain formidable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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