**National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs for Miami indicate an overnight minimum temperature of 80–83 °F on August 9, 2026, under typical late-summer conditions of high humidity, warm sea-surface temperatures, and light easterly flow.** Persistent moisture from the Atlantic and Gulf keeps dew points elevated, limiting radiative cooling and holding lows well above the August climatological average near 78 °F. Scattered showers or thunderstorms possible overnight can further moderate temperatures through cloud cover and brief mixing, while clearer intervals would allow slightly greater cooling toward the lower end of the range. These factors produce the tight market split between the 82–83 °F (42.5 %) and 80–81 °F (36 %) bins, with lower-probability outcomes reflecting the small chance of stronger convection or atypical wind shifts. Updated NWS and model guidance released on the morning of August 9 will provide the final observational basis for resolution.