Market-implied odds show a tight split between 90-91°F (44.5%) and 92-93°F (39.5%) for Miami’s peak temperature on August 9, reflecting forecast uncertainty in typical late-summer conditions. NOAA guidance and regional models indicate a baseline high near 90°F amid southeast flow, high moisture, and afternoon sea-breeze convergence that often triggers scattered thunderstorms capable of capping temperatures. Clearer intervals or delayed convection could allow readings to reach the low 90s, while stronger storms or increased cloud cover would favor the lower bin. Historical August normals hover around 88-91°F, with day-to-day variability driven by subtle shifts in the subtropical ridge and boundary-layer moisture; updated model runs and evening observations will likely refine the consensus ahead of market resolution.