**Forecast consensus points to a daily minimum around 21–23°C for Qingdao on August 31, driven by coastal moderation, light northerly winds, and partly cloudy skies that limit overnight radiative cooling.** Recent model runs show slight cooling from the prior weekend’s rain and humidity, with current conditions featuring northerly flow and dew points near 21–23°C. Official and ensemble guidance (including GFS/ECMWF analogs) consistently project overnight lows in the low-20s Celsius range, reflecting typical late-August climatology for the region where sea-surface temperatures keep minima from dropping sharply. The tight clustering of market probabilities around 19–22°C captures genuine short-term uncertainty: additional cloud cover or a wind shift could allow slightly more cooling toward 19–20°C, while clearer skies or higher humidity would hold the low nearer 22–23°C. Updated model runs and the next 48-hour forecast cycles will be the key catalysts for any probability shifts before resolution.