**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in São Paulo on August 24 centers on 13–15°C outcomes because multiple forecast models converge on overnight lows near 13–14°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.** Winter conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, with reduced solar heating and typical August averages of 12–16°C, support this range, while recent model runs show modest cooling from a passing high-pressure system promoting radiational cooling. Key differentiating factors include variable cloud cover (which can trap heat and raise minima by 1–2°C) versus clearer skies, light southeasterly winds limiting mixing, and urban heat-island effects at official stations like Congonhas Airport. Historical analogs and current ensemble guidance indicate low precipitation risk, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around these thresholds rather than colder or warmer extremes. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will provide the final data ahead of market resolution.