Recent model consensus for São Paulo on August 27 points to overnight radiative cooling under partly clear or foggy skies, with minimum temperatures likely settling between 14–18 °C amid a seasonal winter pattern. Light northerly winds and dew points near 13–15 °C limit further drops, while urban effects and variable low-level moisture create small but decisive spreads across guidance. Historical August climatology centers around 12 °C lows, yet the current spell of above-average warmth earlier in the month and an approaching drier air mass have lifted the near-term floor. Traders therefore assign roughly equal implied probabilities across the 14–18 °C band because ensemble differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing remain unresolved until the final model runs and local observations arrive.