Traders see 26–28°C as the most probable overnight low for Shenzhen on August 29 because multiple forecast models converge on limited nocturnal cooling under high humidity, extensive cloud cover, and scattered thunderstorms. Dew points near 26–27°C suppress radiative heat loss, while persistent low-level moisture and urban heat-island effects keep surface temperatures from dropping sharply. Recent model runs show minor differences in the timing and intensity of evening rain, which can either enhance or suppress further cooling by a degree or two. With probabilities clustered tightly between 42% and 48% for these outcomes, small revisions in the final hours—driven by local wind shifts or clearer breaks—could shift the exact minimum across the 26–28°C threshold.