Current forecasts from meteorological agencies align closely with the 99% market-implied probability for a 24°C minimum in Tokyo on August 5, reflecting typical early-August climatology of overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy, humid conditions with highs near 32–34°C. Model consensus shows limited variability in steering patterns and no significant cool-air advection or enhanced cloud cover to depress temperatures further, consistent with historical baseline minima around 24°C for the date. Trader positioning incorporates real-time observational data and ensemble runs projecting stable boundary-layer conditions overnight. A rapid shift in regional pressure gradients or unforecasted precipitation could still alter the outcome before official reporting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Токио 5 августа?
24°C 99.0%
23°C <1%
22°C <1%
20°C <1%
$12,232 Объем
$12,232 Объем
18°C или ниже
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
99%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C или выше
<1%
24°C 99.0%
23°C <1%
22°C <1%
20°C <1%
$12,232 Объем
$12,232 Объем
18°C или ниже
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
99%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C или выше
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Aug 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Источник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from meteorological agencies align closely with the 99% market-implied probability for a 24°C minimum in Tokyo on August 5, reflecting typical early-August climatology of overnight radiative cooling under partly cloudy, humid conditions with highs near 32–34°C. Model consensus shows limited variability in steering patterns and no significant cool-air advection or enhanced cloud cover to depress temperatures further, consistent with historical baseline minima around 24°C for the date. Trader positioning incorporates real-time observational data and ensemble runs projecting stable boundary-layer conditions overnight. A rapid shift in regional pressure gradients or unforecasted precipitation could still alter the outcome before official reporting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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