Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles indicate Tokyo's overnight low on September 18 will likely settle near 19–20°C under northerly winds of 5–6 m/s, persistent cloud cover exceeding 70%, and light drizzle suppressing radiative cooling. High pressure around 1022 hPa and dew points near 15–16°C limit further temperature drops compared to clearer historical analogs for mid-September. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to these thresholds because model runs show minimal divergence on minimum temperature, with the 19°C outcome edging slightly ahead amid recent observational trends of 19–20°C lows the prior night. Updated guidance from the next JMA briefing could shift sentiment if steering patterns or moisture advection change.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСамая низкая температура в Токио 18 сентября?
Самая низкая температура в Токио 18 сентября?
20°C 40%
19°C 36%
22°C 14%
21°C 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
18 сент. 2026 г.
14°C или ниже
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
8%
18°C
9%
19°C
36%
20°C
40%
21°C
13%
22°C
14%
23°C
5%
24°C или выше
1%
20°C 40%
19°C 36%
22°C 14%
21°C 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
18 сент. 2026 г.
14°C или ниже
$53 Объем
1%
15°C
$53 Объем
1%
16°C
$0 Объем
<1%
17°C
$70 Объем
8%
18°C
$243 Объем
9%
19°C
$1,638 Объем
36%
20°C
$1,029 Объем
40%
21°C
$30 Объем
13%
22°C
$0 Объем
14%
23°C
$0 Объем
5%
24°C или выше
$29 Объем
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles indicate Tokyo's overnight low on September 18 will likely settle near 19–20°C under northerly winds of 5–6 m/s, persistent cloud cover exceeding 70%, and light drizzle suppressing radiative cooling. High pressure around 1022 hPa and dew points near 15–16°C limit further temperature drops compared to clearer historical analogs for mid-September. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to these thresholds because model runs show minimal divergence on minimum temperature, with the 19°C outcome edging slightly ahead amid recent observational trends of 19–20°C lows the prior night. Updated guidance from the next JMA briefing could shift sentiment if steering patterns or moisture advection change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Объем
$3,145Дата окончания
18 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles indicate Tokyo's overnight low on September 18 will likely settle near 19–20°C under northerly winds of 5–6 m/s, persistent cloud cover exceeding 70%, and light drizzle suppressing radiative cooling. High pressure around 1022 hPa and dew points near 15–16°C limit further temperature drops compared to clearer historical analogs for mid-September. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to these thresholds because model runs show minimal divergence on minimum temperature, with the 19°C outcome edging slightly ahead amid recent observational trends of 19–20°C lows the prior night. Updated guidance from the next JMA briefing could shift sentiment if steering patterns or moisture advection change.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Объем
$3,145Дата окончания
18 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles indicate Tokyo's overnight low on September 18 will likely settle near 19–20°C under northerly winds of 5–6 m/s, persistent cloud cover exceeding 70%, and light drizzle suppressing radiative cooling. High pressure around 1022 hPa and dew points near 15–16°C limit further temperature drops compared to clearer historical analogs for mid-September. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to these thresholds because model runs show minimal divergence on minimum temperature, with the 19°C outcome edging slightly ahead amid recent observational trends of 19–20°C lows the prior night. Updated guidance from the next JMA briefing could shift sentiment if steering patterns or moisture advection change.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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