Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean benefits from representing a D+8 district centered in the western Philadelphia suburbs, where she secured 59.1 percent of the vote in 2024 and maintains strong committee assignments on Appropriations and Foreign Affairs. Trader consensus reflected in the 92.5 percent Democratic probability stems from this partisan baseline, her consistent fundraising edge exceeding $1.1 million, and the absence of a competitive Republican challenger ahead of the May 19 primary. The GOP field, including candidates like Aurora Stuski, lacks the resources or name recognition to alter the district's trajectory. A national Republican wave or unforeseen personal issue could narrow the margin, though such shifts have not materialized in recent cycles for this seat.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
PA-04 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
93%
Республиканская партия
7%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$1,515 Объем
93%
Республиканская партия
$6,552 Объем
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean benefits from representing a D+8 district centered in the western Philadelphia suburbs, where she secured 59.1 percent of the vote in 2024 and maintains strong committee assignments on Appropriations and Foreign Affairs. Trader consensus reflected in the 92.5 percent Democratic probability stems from this partisan baseline, her consistent fundraising edge exceeding $1.1 million, and the absence of a competitive Republican challenger ahead of the May 19 primary. The GOP field, including candidates like Aurora Stuski, lacks the resources or name recognition to alter the district's trajectory. A national Republican wave or unforeseen personal issue could narrow the margin, though such shifts have not materialized in recent cycles for this seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Объем
$8,067Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean benefits from representing a D+8 district centered in the western Philadelphia suburbs, where she secured 59.1 percent of the vote in 2024 and maintains strong committee assignments on Appropriations and Foreign Affairs. Trader consensus reflected in the 92.5 percent Democratic probability stems from this partisan baseline, her consistent fundraising edge exceeding $1.1 million, and the absence of a competitive Republican challenger ahead of the May 19 primary. The GOP field, including candidates like Aurora Stuski, lacks the resources or name recognition to alter the district's trajectory. A national Republican wave or unforeseen personal issue could narrow the margin, though such shifts have not materialized in recent cycles for this seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$8,067Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean benefits from representing a D+8 district centered in the western Philadelphia suburbs, where she secured 59.1 percent of the vote in 2024 and maintains strong committee assignments on Appropriations and Foreign Affairs. Trader consensus reflected in the 92.5 percent Democratic probability stems from this partisan baseline, her consistent fundraising edge exceeding $1.1 million, and the absence of a competitive Republican challenger ahead of the May 19 primary. The GOP field, including candidates like Aurora Stuski, lacks the resources or name recognition to alter the district's trajectory. A national Republican wave or unforeseen personal issue could narrow the margin, though such shifts have not materialized in recent cycles for this seat.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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