Recent polling for Sweden’s September 13, 2026, parliamentary election consistently places the Social Democrats first and the Sweden Democrats second, positioning the Moderate Party as the clear third-place contender in trader assessments. Multiple surveys through July show the Moderates holding steady near 17 percent, separated from the Sweden Democrats by a modest margin that has persisted over recent months amid stable bloc standings. Limited volatility in voter intentions for smaller parties has reinforced this ordering, with no major campaign events or shifts reported in the past 30 days that would alter third-place probabilities. The election timeline leaves roughly five weeks for any late movement in support.