Sustained polling leads position the Swedish Social Democratic Party as the clear frontrunner to win the most seats in the September 2026 Riksdag election. Recent surveys from Ipsos, Novus, and Demoskop place S support near 33 percent, 13 points ahead of the Sweden Democrats and ahead of the Moderates, with the left bloc holding a narrow overall edge. This stability reflects voter preferences amid the current Tidö government's handling of economic and security issues, reinforced by S's long-standing status as Sweden's largest party under proportional representation. Trader consensus at over 90 percent implied probability aligns with these trends. Potential shifts could stem from late-campaign developments such as a right-wing surge on immigration policy, economic downturns, or scandals affecting S leader Magdalena Andersson, though the 4 percent threshold and bloc dynamics limit rapid changes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоLiberals and Sweden Democrats announce removal of “red‑line” restrictions on SD coalition participation, signalling a possible reunification of the Tidö bloc and causing a sharp
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) dips to 90%3%
Liberals and Sweden Democrats announce removal of “red‑line” restrictions on SD coalition participation, signalling a possible reunification of the Tidö bloc and causing a sharp drop in S’s










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