Incumbent Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow holds a substantial lead in early polling for the October 26, 2026, municipal election, with recent surveys showing her support in the mid-40s to low-50s percent range against declared challenger City Councillor Brad Bradford. Bradford, who officially entered the race in early May, trails by double-digit margins in the first post-nomination polls, reflecting limited momentum despite criticism of city hall priorities such as housing and traffic. Former Mayor John Tory’s decision not to seek a comeback has narrowed the field, leaving Chow as the clear frontrunner among remaining contenders including Ana Bailão and others registering minimal support. These polling trends and the absence of stronger opposition explain the current trader consensus favoring Chow while assigning Bradford a secondary but still distant position ahead of the vote.