This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.US-Iran diplomacy has shifted rapidly since the June 17 memorandum of understanding that suspended hostilities, eased sanctions, and led to the formal lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on June 18. The agreement sets a 60-day window for further talks on Iran's nuclear program, including dilution of its enriched uranium stockpile and expanded inspections, while restoring commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President Vance's recent statements on Iranian commitments to inspections have reinforced trader focus on de-escalation momentum, though any breakdown in negotiations or new military incidents could reopen questions about sanctions enforcement. Upcoming nuclear talks and regional reactions from Israel and Gulf states remain key variables that could influence assessments of future U.S. actions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
US-Iran diplomacy has shifted rapidly since the June 17 memorandum of understanding that suspended hostilities, eased sanctions, and led to the formal lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on June 18. The agreement sets a 60-day window for further talks on Iran's nuclear program, including dilution of its enriched uranium stockpile and expanded inspections, while restoring commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President Vance's recent statements on Iranian commitments to inspections have reinforced trader focus on de-escalation momentum, though any breakdown in negotiations or new military incidents could reopen questions about sanctions enforcement. Upcoming nuclear talks and regional reactions from Israel and Gulf states remain key variables that could influence assessments of future U.S. actions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Jul 9 2026
White House provides update on U.S. retaliatory strikes against Iran
The White House released a video update on retaliatory strikes against Iran, indicating ongoing military operations that may have contributed to market volatility around U.S. military posture.
Jul 9 2026
US and Iran Agree to Stand Down Following Intense Exchange of Military Strikes
December 31 jumps to 44%7%
After a heavy exchange of retaliatory strikes, U.S. and Iranian officials agreed to stand down, though the threat of a reimposed blockade kept market probabilities elevated.
Jul 8 2026
Trump Declares Ceasefire Over and Considers Reimposing Naval Blockade on Iran
August 31 surges to 35%15%
President Trump's public statements at the NATO summit regarding the potential return of the naval blockade caused a sharp increase in the August 31 contract's 'Yes' probability.
Jul 8 2026
Trump Declares Ceasefire Over and Considers Reimposing Naval Blockade on Iran
July 31 jumps to 25%14%
The July 31 contract also experienced a significant upward price movement following Trump's official statements that the naval blockade was back on the table.
Jul 8 2026
Trump Announces Reimposition of US Naval Blockade on Iran at NATO Summit
December 31 jumps to 37%9%
At the NATO summit in Turkey, President Trump declared that the ceasefire with Iran was over and officially announced that the U.S. was reimposing its naval blockade on Iranian ports.
Jul 8 2026
Trump Declares Ceasefire Over and Considers Reimposing Naval Blockade on Iran
December 31 jumps to 43%13%
At the NATO Summit in Turkey, President Donald Trump declared the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding effectively over and announced that the U.S. is considering reinstating its naval blockade on Iranian ports.
Jul 7 2026
US Ends Oil Export Sanctions Waiver Following Maritime Clashes with Iran
August 31 plunges to 28%21%
Following a series of drone attacks and exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. terminated the oil export waiver granted to Iran, threatening a return to the naval blockade.
Jul 7 2026
August 31 Blockade Probability Plummets on Sustained Peace Framework
August 31 plunges to 20%29%
The August 31 contract saw its price drop from 49% to 20% as the diplomatic framework mediated by Pakistan and Qatar continued to hold, reducing fears of a sudden return to hostilities.
Jul 2 2026
Iran Warns Against US Interference in Strait of Hormuz Management
December 31 dips to 28%3%
Iran's Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters warned of a swift response to any US interference in its efforts to manage the Strait of Hormuz, raising geopolitical tensions.
Jun 25 2026
US Central Command Deploys Second Marine Expeditionary Unit to Middle East
December 31 jumps to 38%5%
As peace talks paused for the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, CENTCOM announced that ships carrying a second Marine Expeditionary Unit were operating in the Middle East, signaling continued military readiness.
Jun 23 2026
Capito weighs in on Trump's Iran Memorandum of Understanding
August 31 drops to 38%11%
Senator Capito commented on the Trump administration's deal with Iran, noting that the U.S. would lift the naval blockade and end all sanctions as part of the agreement, which could have implications for maritime restrictions.
Jun 23 2026
Trump Announces Iran Agrees to Permanent Nuclear Inspections
December 31 jumps to 31%7%
President Donald Trump announced that Iran had agreed to permanent nuclear inspections, reinforcing the diplomatic path and reducing the likelihood of a renewed blockade.
Jun 22 2026
US Treasury Issues General License X Authorizing Iranian Oil Sales
December 31 plunges to 24%22%
Following the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding, the U.S. Department of the Treasury issued a broad 60-day authorization allowing Iranian oil exports, reinforcing the formal lifting of the maritime blockade.
Jun 22 2026
Iran and US Dispute Nuclear Inspection Discussions in Switzerland
December 31 plunges to 24%22%
Conflicting reports emerged regarding whether the nuclear issue was discussed during the Switzerland talks, creating brief uncertainty about the stability of the newly signed peace framework.
Jun 22 2026
Senate passes Iran War Powers Resolution limiting U.S. military actions
July 31 plunges to 21%24%
The Senate passed a War Powers Resolution that would bind the President to cease hostilities against Iran, signaling a major legislative effort to end the conflict and likely influencing market expectations about future U.S. military posture.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.US-Iran diplomacy has shifted rapidly since the June 17 memorandum of understanding that suspended hostilities, eased sanctions, and led to the formal lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on June 18. The agreement sets a 60-day window for further talks on Iran's nuclear program, including dilution of its enriched uranium stockpile and expanded inspections, while restoring commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President Vance's recent statements on Iranian commitments to inspections have reinforced trader focus on de-escalation momentum, though any breakdown in negotiations or new military incidents could reopen questions about sanctions enforcement. Upcoming nuclear talks and regional reactions from Israel and Gulf states remain key variables that could influence assessments of future U.S. actions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify: - Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; - Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; - Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade; - Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and - Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones, provided it clearly announces the interdiction of Iranian maritime traffic as an unconditional policy.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade, previously-unannounced prior implementation of a blockade, or definitive decision to implement a blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe a blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of a blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
- Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
- Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
- Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement a blockade;
- Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
- Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional imposition rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a blockade is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
US-Iran diplomacy has shifted rapidly since the June 17 memorandum of understanding that suspended hostilities, eased sanctions, and led to the formal lifting of the U.S. naval blockade on June 18. The agreement sets a 60-day window for further talks on Iran's nuclear program, including dilution of its enriched uranium stockpile and expanded inspections, while restoring commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President Vance's recent statements on Iranian commitments to inspections have reinforced trader focus on de-escalation momentum, though any breakdown in negotiations or new military incidents could reopen questions about sanctions enforcement. Upcoming nuclear talks and regional reactions from Israel and Gulf states remain key variables that could influence assessments of future U.S. actions.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Jul 9 2026
White House provides update on U.S. retaliatory strikes against Iran
The White House released a video update on retaliatory strikes against Iran, indicating ongoing military operations that may have contributed to market volatility around U.S. military posture.
Jul 9 2026
US and Iran Agree to Stand Down Following Intense Exchange of Military Strikes
December 31 jumps to 44%7%
After a heavy exchange of retaliatory strikes, U.S. and Iranian officials agreed to stand down, though the threat of a reimposed blockade kept market probabilities elevated.
Jul 8 2026
Trump Declares Ceasefire Over and Considers Reimposing Naval Blockade on Iran
August 31 surges to 35%15%
President Trump's public statements at the NATO summit regarding the potential return of the naval blockade caused a sharp increase in the August 31 contract's 'Yes' probability.
Jul 8 2026
Trump Declares Ceasefire Over and Considers Reimposing Naval Blockade on Iran
July 31 jumps to 25%14%
The July 31 contract also experienced a significant upward price movement following Trump's official statements that the naval blockade was back on the table.
Jul 8 2026
Trump Announces Reimposition of US Naval Blockade on Iran at NATO Summit
December 31 jumps to 37%9%
At the NATO summit in Turkey, President Trump declared that the ceasefire with Iran was over and officially announced that the U.S. was reimposing its naval blockade on Iranian ports.
Jul 8 2026
Trump Declares Ceasefire Over and Considers Reimposing Naval Blockade on Iran
December 31 jumps to 43%13%
At the NATO Summit in Turkey, President Donald Trump declared the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding effectively over and announced that the U.S. is considering reinstating its naval blockade on Iranian ports.
Jul 7 2026
US Ends Oil Export Sanctions Waiver Following Maritime Clashes with Iran
August 31 plunges to 28%21%
Following a series of drone attacks and exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. terminated the oil export waiver granted to Iran, threatening a return to the naval blockade.
Jul 7 2026
August 31 Blockade Probability Plummets on Sustained Peace Framework
August 31 plunges to 20%29%
The August 31 contract saw its price drop from 49% to 20% as the diplomatic framework mediated by Pakistan and Qatar continued to hold, reducing fears of a sudden return to hostilities.
Jul 2 2026
Iran Warns Against US Interference in Strait of Hormuz Management
December 31 dips to 28%3%
Iran's Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters warned of a swift response to any US interference in its efforts to manage the Strait of Hormuz, raising geopolitical tensions.
Jun 25 2026
US Central Command Deploys Second Marine Expeditionary Unit to Middle East
December 31 jumps to 38%5%
As peace talks paused for the funeral of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, CENTCOM announced that ships carrying a second Marine Expeditionary Unit were operating in the Middle East, signaling continued military readiness.
Jun 23 2026
Capito weighs in on Trump's Iran Memorandum of Understanding
August 31 drops to 38%11%
Senator Capito commented on the Trump administration's deal with Iran, noting that the U.S. would lift the naval blockade and end all sanctions as part of the agreement, which could have implications for maritime restrictions.
Jun 23 2026
Trump Announces Iran Agrees to Permanent Nuclear Inspections
December 31 jumps to 31%7%
President Donald Trump announced that Iran had agreed to permanent nuclear inspections, reinforcing the diplomatic path and reducing the likelihood of a renewed blockade.
Jun 22 2026
US Treasury Issues General License X Authorizing Iranian Oil Sales
December 31 plunges to 24%22%
Following the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding, the U.S. Department of the Treasury issued a broad 60-day authorization allowing Iranian oil exports, reinforcing the formal lifting of the maritime blockade.
Jun 22 2026
Iran and US Dispute Nuclear Inspection Discussions in Switzerland
December 31 plunges to 24%22%
Conflicting reports emerged regarding whether the nuclear issue was discussed during the Switzerland talks, creating brief uncertainty about the stability of the newly signed peace framework.
Jun 22 2026
Senate passes Iran War Powers Resolution limiting U.S. military actions
July 31 plunges to 21%24%
The Senate passed a War Powers Resolution that would bind the President to cease hostilities against Iran, signaling a major legislative effort to end the conflict and likely influencing market expectations about future U.S. military posture.
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Часто задаваемые вопросы
«US announces blockade on Iran by...?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 4 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «December 31» с 48%, за ним следует «August 31» с 36%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 48¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 48%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.
На сегодняшний день «US announces blockade on Iran by...?» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $1.5 million с момента запуска рынка Jun 22, 2026. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.
Чтобы торговать на «US announces blockade on Iran by...?», просмотри 4 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.
Текущий фаворит для «US announces blockade on Iran by...?» — «December 31» с 48%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 48%. Следующий ближайший исход — «August 31» с 36%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.
Правила разрешения «US announces blockade on Iran by...?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.
Да. Тебе не нужно торговать, чтобы оставаться в курсе. Эта страница служит трекером в реальном времени для «US announces blockade on Iran by...?». Вероятности исходов обновляются в реальном времени по мере поступления новых сделок. Ты можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки и читать раздел комментариев, чтобы узнать мнение других трейдеров. Ты также можешь использовать фильтры временного диапазона на графике, чтобы увидеть, как менялись коэффициенты со временем.
Коэффициенты Polymarket устанавливаются реальными трейдерами, вкладывающими реальные деньги в свои убеждения, что обычно приводит к точным прогнозам. С объёмом торгов $1.5 million по “US announces blockade on Iran by...?” эти цены агрегируют коллективные знания и убеждённость тысяч участников — часто превосходя опросы, экспертные прогнозы и традиционные исследования. Рынки прогнозов, такие как Polymarket, имеют сильный послужной список точности, особенно когда события приближаются к дате разрешения. Например, месячный показатель точности Polymarket составляет 94%. Для получения последних статистических данных о точности прогнозов Polymarket посети страницу точности на Polymarket.
Чтобы совершить первую сделку на «US announces blockade on Iran by...?», зарегистрируй бесплатный аккаунт на Polymarket и пополни его с помощью криптовалюты, кредитной или дебетовой карты или банковского перевода. После пополнения аккаунта вернись на эту страницу, выбери исход, на который хочешь торговать, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты новичок на рынках прогнозов, нажми на ссылку «Как это работает» вверху любой страницы Polymarket для пошагового руководства.
На Polymarket цена каждого исхода представляет подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Цена 48¢ для «December 31» на рынке «US announces blockade on Iran by...?» означает, что трейдеры коллективно оценивают вероятность того, что «December 31» будет правильным результатом, примерно в 48%. Если ты купишь акции «Да» по 48¢ и исход окажется правильным, ты получишь $1,00 за акцию — прибыль 52¢ за акцию. Если нет — эти акции будут стоить $0.
Рынок «US announces blockade on Iran by...?» запланирован к разрешению примерно Dec 31, 2026. Это означает, что торговля остаётся открытой, а коэффициенты продолжат меняться до этой даты. Точные сроки разрешения зависят от момента появления официального результата, как описано в разделе «Правила».
Рынок «US announces blockade on Iran by...?» имеет активное сообщество из 20 комментариев, где трейдеры делятся своим анализом, обсуждают исходы и последние события. Прокрути вниз до раздела комментариев, чтобы прочитать, что думают другие участники. Ты также можешь фильтровать по «Топ-держателям» или проверить вкладку «Активность» для ленты сделок в реальном времени.
Polymarket — крупнейший в мире рынок прогнозов, где ты можешь оставаться в курсе событий и зарабатывать на своих знаниях о реальных событиях. Трейдеры покупают и продают акции на исходы по темам от политики и выборов до криптовалют, финансов, спорта, технологий и культуры, включая рынки вроде «US announces blockade on Iran by...?». Цены отражают вероятности в реальном времени, подкреплённые финансовыми убеждениями, зачастую обеспечивая более быстрые и точные сигналы, чем опросы, эксперты или традиционные исследования.
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