Diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing, including scheduled Trump-Xi summits and ongoing talks on economic stability, technology controls, and AI safety, has sustained channels for managing flashpoints in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. Reduced Chinese air incursions near Taiwan, internal PLA purges that have disrupted military readiness, and the high costs of direct confrontation have reinforced trader expectations that no qualifying military encounter will occur before year-end. Verbal exchanges over U.S. space weapons and routine shadowing of allied drills have not escalated to force. Realistic shifts could still arise from a rapid miscalculation during a Taiwan-related incident, an unintended clash involving U.S. forces in the South China Sea, or an unforeseen leadership decision amid the brief remaining window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоВоенное столкновение США и Китая до 2027 года?
Военное столкновение США и Китая до 2027 года?
Да
3% вероятность
$211,307 Объем
$211,307 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
3% вероятность
$211,307 Объем
$211,307 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing, including scheduled Trump-Xi summits and ongoing talks on economic stability, technology controls, and AI safety, has sustained channels for managing flashpoints in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. Reduced Chinese air incursions near Taiwan, internal PLA purges that have disrupted military readiness, and the high costs of direct confrontation have reinforced trader expectations that no qualifying military encounter will occur before year-end. Verbal exchanges over U.S. space weapons and routine shadowing of allied drills have not escalated to force. Realistic shifts could still arise from a rapid miscalculation during a Taiwan-related incident, an unintended clash involving U.S. forces in the South China Sea, or an unforeseen leadership decision amid the brief remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Объем
$211,307Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing, including scheduled Trump-Xi summits and ongoing talks on economic stability, technology controls, and AI safety, has sustained channels for managing flashpoints in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. Reduced Chinese air incursions near Taiwan, internal PLA purges that have disrupted military readiness, and the high costs of direct confrontation have reinforced trader expectations that no qualifying military encounter will occur before year-end. Verbal exchanges over U.S. space weapons and routine shadowing of allied drills have not escalated to force. Realistic shifts could still arise from a rapid miscalculation during a Taiwan-related incident, an unintended clash involving U.S. forces in the South China Sea, or an unforeseen leadership decision amid the brief remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$211,307Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing, including scheduled Trump-Xi summits and ongoing talks on economic stability, technology controls, and AI safety, has sustained channels for managing flashpoints in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea. Reduced Chinese air incursions near Taiwan, internal PLA purges that have disrupted military readiness, and the high costs of direct confrontation have reinforced trader expectations that no qualifying military encounter will occur before year-end. Verbal exchanges over U.S. space weapons and routine shadowing of allied drills have not escalated to force. Realistic shifts could still arise from a rapid miscalculation during a Taiwan-related incident, an unintended clash involving U.S. forces in the South China Sea, or an unforeseen leadership decision amid the brief remaining window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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